An Optimist’s Guide to the Toronto Maple Leafs’ chances in Game 7

Matt Larkin
Matt Larkin(MLarkinHockey)
May 14, 2022, 07:58 EDT
An Optimist’s Guide to the Toronto Maple Leafs’ chances in Game 7

If you count yourself among the endlessly suffering Toronto Maple Leafs fans, you know the signs of a team that has quit: hangdog looks, shaking heads, holding onto the puck for too long or too little, prickly comments to the media, maybe even angrily firing pucks into empty nets after allowing back-breaking goals.

We saw that from the Toronto Maple Leafs when they led the Boston Bruins 3-2 in the first round of their 2019 series only to blow a lead in Game 6 and no-show in Game 7. We saw the frustration throughout the 2020 bubble series against the Columbus Blue Jackets and when nothing seemed to work after staking out a 3-1 series lead to the Montreal Canadiens in 2021.

But we didn’t see those familiar signifiers when the Leafs, despite outplaying the Tampa Bay Lightning for much of Game 6 on Thursday, blew a 3-2 third-period lead and ended up losing in overtime. The players didn’t mope like people who knew their Game 7 fate was already sealed. They all actively abstained from criticizing the officials, who awarded them one power play and didn’t call a single penalty in the last 29:42 of Game 6.

As Auston Matthews put it after the game, “We’ve just got to put our balls on the line and go for it.”

And you know what? There’s reason to believe Toronto will this time.

“I think going into Game 7 last year and maybe the Columbus series for that matter, you go into those on a bit of a downer because of your performance and how you failed to get it done,” said Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe during a media availability Friday. “And last night, we lose in overtime, which was similar to Montreal. Just the manner in which we played, and the caliber of our opponent, and how hard they’ve pushed us, and how we’ve handled that, and how we’ve put ourselves in positions to win, and how our individual players are feeling, the confidence that they have and how they feel good about their performance, as they should – all those things combined just have our group (filled) with excitement.”

We’ve dumped on the Leafs’ star-crossed history enough. We know they’re 0-8 in the Matthews era in games that can advance them past the first round. So we’re going to try swimming upstream. Let’s flip the script and offer up an Optimist’s Guide to the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Game 7 Chances. Why should Leaf fans believe things will somehow play out differently this time?

Different year, different body language

The ‘Same old Leafs’ would’ve packed it in Thursday after falling behind 2-0 on the road halfway through the second period of Game 6. But the 2021-22 version just put their heads down and became the aggressor for the rest of the period, scoring three goals in an eight-minute stretch. When the Lightning got a 5-on-3 in the third and tied the game thanks to what was a botched call on a David Kampf high stick, the Leafs put their heads down again and pushed the pace in overtime. It was the Lightning back on their heels for much of that extra frame, where the Leafs outshot them 9-5. They played like a team that actually wanted it. They were decisive with the puck without being hurried. They looked ready to win.

And then they just…didn’t. But that didn’t seem to affect their postgame demeanor. And they maintained that collective poker face Friday during the availability.

“We’ve got to believe in ourselves: If we get out there and play our game, we’re good enough to beat anybody,” said Leafs defenseman Mark Giordano. “So you’ve got to have that confidence in your game. After an overtime loss, right after a game, you’re a little bit down, but today, you wake up, there’s a new day. We’ll get back home, and tomorrow’s going to be a really exciting day. It’s going to be hard to have your pre-game nap and all that, because you’re going to be so excited, but that’s a good thing. That means you care. Really looking forward to playing in that game. It’s going to be an amazing atmosphere for sure.

Either the Leafs aren’t feeling the “Here we go again” panic of seasons past this time, or they’re doing a much better job concealing it.

Comeback kids

Roaring back from down 2-0 wasn’t new in this series. The Leafs rallied in Game 1 after taking a five-minute major, killed it off and won the game 5-0, turning a potential meltdown into a momentum changer. They had late pushbacks in their Game 2 and Game 4 losses, just enough to make the final scores less embarrassing and build some confidence for the ensuing games, both of which they won. They came back from a 2-0 deficit and arguably their worst period of the series to win Game 5. This team has a reputation of cracking under pressure, but it has surprised its fan base time and again during the Lightning series by fighting back when least expected to.

That principle applies specifically to goaltender Jack Campbell, too. He was crucial in the comeback Game 5 victory and held his own in Game 6. Since getting pulled in Game 4 and allowing two goals on the first four shots of Game 5, he’s stopped 61 of 66 shots, good for a .924 save percentage.

Deeper and healthier

The Bruins took out Toronto minus the suspended Nazem Kadri in 2019. The Blue Jackets won Game 5 in the bubble with Jake Muzzin out for the series after he sustained a scary neck injury. Last season, the Leafs got only a couple minutes of captain John Tavares, who sustained a terrifying head injury in Game 1, and were again missing Muzzin for a do-or-die game, this time Game 7 against the Montreal Canadiens.

This season? Toronto enters Game 7 with a fully healthy lineup and a deeper one than in years past. Keefe was confident enough in his 12 forwards to give every line, including the fourth unit of Jason Spezza, Colin Blackwell and Ondrej Kase, shifts in overtime Thursday. All four lines have had their moments during the series.

The stars are stepping up

The Leafs’ expensive core falls under the microscope whenever something goes wrong. But this is the Optimist’s Guide, remember? So let’s give credit where credit is due. The Leafs’ $40-million plus “core four” forwards in Games 1-6:

Auston Matthews; 4 goals, 8 points
William Nylander: 3 goals, 7 points
Mitch Marner: 2 goals, 7 points
John Tavares: 3 goals, 6 points

The moment has not looked too big for Toronto’s stars in the series. Marner dominated Game 1. After some mid-series struggles, Nylander was Toronto’s best player in Game 5, while Tavares built on a strong Game 5 and scored twice in Game 6. Most of all, though, it’s Matthews who is showing a readiness to be an all-situations superstar.

The 60 goals were amazing in the regular season, but look at what Matthews did in Game 6: one goal, nine hits, two takeaways and a 65-percent efficiency on faceoffs. And that was with the Lightning having last change and the ability to throw the Killorn-Point-Cirelli line at Matthews whenever coach Jon Cooper wanted to. Matthews also scored the game-winning goal in Game 5. He’s behaved like someone craving pressure rather than cowering from it.

“He was really physical throwing his body around, and he (made it easier for) us getting pucks back,” said defenseman Justin Holl about Matthews’ Game 6. “He scored a goal as well and did a lot of great stuff offensively, and that’s what we’ve come to expect, but he’s been great.”

Tired Tampa?

The Lightning didn’t seem to have their legs for much of the Game 6 overtime. They pulled out the win but did so largely because goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy bought them time. Eventually, the core Tampa players’ incredibly large workload over the past few postseasons will catch up. As the back-to-back champs, The Lightning have logged 54 playoff games since the start of the bubble round-robin in 2020 – and their first Cup run was less than two years ago, having wrapped in September of that year. They hoisted the Trophy twice in roughly nine months.

The Leafs, the subject of annual golfing jokes, have indeed kept the legs fresher with all the early exits. It really showed over the past couple games. If Game 7 ends up being close and going into overtime, the Leafs might be better equipped to keep their motors running. Tampa’s run will end one of these years. There’s a reason no team has three-peated since the New York Islanders in the early 1980s. Playoff runs are incredibly demanding on the body.

VERDICT: Fact or fiction?

So do all the hopeful points above mean the 2021-22 Leafs really are different? Maybe, maybe not. They could just as easily show up jittery and implode on home ice. But they arguably exhibited early signs of weakness in games leading up to their previous do-or-die failures. This time, they’ve stood eye-to-eye with the champions without blinking. These Leafs look and behave differently.

So, if you’re an optimist? Go ahead and cling to the idea that Toronto wins its first playoff series since 2004.

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