Are we overanalyzing Gavin McKenna as the 2026 NHL Draft’s top prospect?
Has the hockey world gone too far in its assessment of Gavin McKenna?
Coming into the season, McKenna was viewed as the headliner for the 2026 NHL Draft, the no-doubt first overall pick. The Whitehorse, Yukon native cemented himself in the WHL record books with back-to-back historic seasons.
As a 16-year-old, McKenna posted 34 goals and 97 points in 61 games, averaging 1.59 points per game in 2023-24. His totals from that season have him tied for fourth in points (Craig Endean’s 1984-85 season) and third in points per game, trailing only Glen Goodall (1.65 in 1986-87) and Connor Bedard (1.61 in 2021-22), for the best 16-year-old seasons in WHL history.
And McKenna outdid himself the following season.
In his draft-minus-one campaign, McKenna scored 41 goals and 88 assists for 129 points in 56 games, averaging a monstrous 2.3 points per game in 2024-25. McKenna finds himself at the top of seasons by a 17-year-old as well, as his 129-point season is the 10th highest in a single season for his age group, and his 2.3 points per game has him third.
Those numbers are historic. Maybe because hockey fans saw Connor Bedard have a season like this so recently, it doesn’t hold as much value. But don’t let the recency fool you: McKenna is one of three players in WHL history to average more than 1.5 points per game as a 16-year-old, and more than 2.0 as a 17-year-old.
If we’re to look at it on a CHL scale, McKenna would have the 20th-best point-per-game season as a 16-year-old and 15th-best as a 17-year-old. And to cherry-pick these stats even further, only Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid and Connor Bedard have accomplished what McKenna has since 1993 – pretty special company to be a part of.
Now five months away from the draft, McKenna is no longer considered the consensus top prospect. How is that possible?
After adding nine goals and 38 points in 16 playoff games en route to capturing the Ed Chynoweth Cup as WHL Champions, McKenna and his Medicine Hat Tigers went a perfect 3-0 in the Memorial Cup round-robin stage. Unfortunately for McKenna, his Tigers dropped the Championship game 4-1 to the London Knights.
While that loss will sting, McKenna had already accomplished nearly everything he needed to at the WHL level. Unless he wanted to chase another opportunity to win a Memorial Cup, what was there left for him to prove by going back to Medicine Hat?
Instead, McKenna decided to take the risk and challenge himself against tougher competition in the NCAA, signing an NIL deal with Penn State.
Looking at the counting stats, McKenna’s numbers are respectable but don’t necessarily jump off the page as his WHL numbers did. The left winger has six goals and 18 assists for 24 points through 20 games with the Nittany Lions. He is two points shy of the Penn State points lead and sits in a tie for 21st with Cole Reschny across the entire NCAA in points per game (1.2).
So, how has McKenna’s inaugural NCAA season truly gone? Daily Faceoff spoke with PSU CommRadio’s Hayden Lewis, lead editor for Penn State’s men’s hockey, who detailed what exactly has transpired for McKenna and his growth this season.
“Entering the season, Coach [Guy] Gadowski and his staff knew McKenna was a special player,” Lewis said. “Even dating back to the first press conference, Coach Gadowski straight up said he’s a special player and that the biggest thing they needed was their other guys, who essentially don’t have the hockey IQ that McKenna has, to acclimate to the style of play that Gavin plays. He’s the most pivotal player for this program.
“When he first showed up, he stuck to the perimeter a bit more than he does now. He tried to stay away from some of the physicality and some of the bigger defensemen that are in the conference. But I don’t necessarily think that was him being scared or being a soft player; it was more that he had to understand how the college game was played, because it’s much tighter checking than the CHL is with the older guys. There are lower-scoring games; the goalies are a bit better.
“At the beginning of the season, we saw a very smart player who made two, three, four spectacular plays in a night but didn’t necessarily take over the entire game. Now, at this stage in the season, it’s almost every shift. He’s making a special play, or doing something that you’re not seeing from the other 17 skaters on his team or the other 18 on the other side. One thing I like to say is Gavin McKenna could make a play in a phone booth with 12 other people inside that phone booth with him. That’s how good he is in tight spaces. That’s how skilled he is. He’s reminiscent of a young Patrick Kane when he was on the London Knights. You saw the skill; the defensive game wasn’t necessarily there, but the offense was so spectacular that you knew you’re going to get a guy that, if he’s paired with the right players offensively, is going to light up the stat sheet.”
Throughout his time at Penn State, McKenna has been trusted in all situations, including the penalty kill. However, he’s not necessarily out there for his defensive abilities; the coaching staff trusts McKenna enough down a skater in case a potential counterattack situation arises. His best work, however, comes on the power play, where he often gets the Alex Ovechkin treatment, playing nearly the full man-advantage.
At the NCAA level, it can be more difficult to create at 5v5. It’s a developmental league where players begin learning about defensive zone structure and growing into their frames, resulting in less open ice for creative players to work with. However, that hasn’t necessarily been what’s slowing McKenna down.
“McKenna creates a ton of offense at 5v5, it just happens that some of his teammates just aren’t burying some very nice setups,” Lewis said. “There are times where he’ll make a wicked seam pass through four or five sticks, and his teammates aren’t expecting the puck to come right to their wheelhouse for a one-time or a quick catch-and-shoot opportunity. He’s missed out on a ton of points 5v5 that way. So his numbers definitely look like he’s a power play merchant, so to say, but quite frankly, 5v5 he’s been a stud as well, despite the numbers maybe not showing that.”
The main disadvantage for McKenna this season has been the caliber of his linemates. He’s regarded as the top prospect of the upcoming draft and the biggest catch in Penn State’s men’s hockey program history, but the coaching staff does not have McKenna playing on their top line.
Coming into the year, they had planned to pair McKenna with Nashville Predators 2023 seventh-round pick Aiden Fink on the second line. However, that was derailed when Fink broke his wrist in October and missed a few months. He has since returned and reunited with McKenna. However, McKenna has spent the majority of the season with a revolving door of linemates, most of whom are defensive-minded bottom-sixers who are playing the highest level of hockey they will in their career.
While McKenna has some offense back on his line with Fink, they were centred by captain Dane Dowiak over the weekend, a stereotypical checking-line role player who doesn’t bring much offence to the table. In fact, outside of Penn State’s top line and Fink, no other Penn State forward has more than 15 points on the season.
That trio on the top line is viewed as untouchable by Penn State fans after a strong finish to last season.
“Penn State had a line last year; JJ Wiebusch, Charlie Ceratto – who was drafted over the summer, second round to the Carolina Hurricanes – and Matthew DiMarsico; they lit it up in the second half of last year,” Lewis shared. “Headed into the season, I was curious to see if they would split up that top line and put Gavin with Charlie, who, in my eyes, was the best offensive play driver on the team before Gavin got here. They didn’t end up doing it, and for the first month and a half of the season, Coach Gadowski bounced lines in what felt like every single game, partially because of injuries.
“There was a point in the season where the center on Gavin’s line couldn’t win a faceoff. They’d go 33-40% in the dot, so his line just didn’t have possession of the puck. If you look at the talent on Penn State’s team, McKenna is not even playing with the team’s best center right now. He’s playing with Fink, who is a top winger and a top scorer on the team and program history, but he’s not a guy who’s going to create for someone else. So Gavin has really had to do a lot on his own. He’s had to play with probably seven or eight different guys throughout this season, where you’re not necessarily seeing that across the country with some other big names.”
Yet, McKenna is still four points over a point-per-game as an 18-year-old, playing against players upwards of seven years older than him. The coaching staff trusts that McKenna can create offense on his own, no matter who he’s playing with. So, keeping the top line together with their chemistry will help the team succeed, but it has clearly not done McKenna any favors in terms of his draft stock.
According to some top draft experts, Frolunda’s Ivar Stenberg has surpassed McKenna as the projected No. 1 overall pick in June.
Stenberg is having a historic season of his own in the Swedish Hockey League. The Swedish winger has six goals and 26 points in 27 games for league-leading Frolunda. After missing games to capture Gold at the World Junior Championship over the holidays, Stenberg is now on pace to score 41 points in 43 games. That would have him one point shy of Daniel Sedin for the most points in the SHL by an 18-year-old.
Stenberg is already among the top 10, filled with some of Sweden’s most elite offensive producers at the NHL level: Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Markus Naslund, Tomas Sandström, Niklas Andersson, Elias Lindholm, Peter Forsberg, Nicklas Backstrom and Magnus Pääjärvi.
Regardless of how McKenna’s season has gone, Stenberg deserves to be in the conversation because of his historic season. And while McKenna’s decision to join the NCAA and not be lighting up the WHL for a third-straight season may cost him the top selection, he and the coaching staff believe that playing against older, more developed competition will help him for his eventual jump to the NHL.
“It’s been really important for his growth, because he’s learning how to play against bigger, stronger, faster men,” Lewis said. “I think we’re seeing it more now, where he’s kind of fully adjusted, and he understands where he has to put himself on the ice to be successful.”
There is still the other half of a season left to be played before an NHL team wins the Draft Lottery and has to decide whether or not to make Gavin McKenna the first overall pick. And a lot can change over five months.
For example, five months ago, McKenna was the undoubted top prospect; this year’s draft was viewed as the McKenna sweepstakes. But today, that’s not the case. And now, McKenna has a five-month window to remind the hockey world why he deserves to be the top pick in this draft.
Let’s not forget that it was less than a year ago that hockey fans were watching McKenna have the third-best WHL season in history with Medicine Hat, and he nearly capped the unbelievable year off with a Memorial Cup. But now, since McKenna chose to challenge himself against bigger, more physical and developed competition, yet is still producing over a point-per-game despite playing with much lesser talent, he no longer deserves to be the top selection in June?
Hockey observers might be overanalyzing this one.
“He’s a game-breaker,” Lewis said. “You see it night in and night out. He’s constantly making plays that nobody else on this team and many other guys in the Big 10 can’t make.
“The Gavin McKenna I’ve seen this year is the Gavin McKenna that was advertised by the Craig Buttons and the Bob McKenzies of the world. You’re getting an offensive guru, a guy that’s going to light up the stat sheet every single night.”
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