Believe it or not, Auston Matthews can still be Alex Ovechkin
The headlines surrounding Auston Matthews in recent years have been harsh.
‘Is Auston Matthews still a superstar?’
‘Auston Matthews’ play in Game 7 leaves you wondering what’s next’
‘It’s time to strip the C off Auston Matthews’
‘America’s Great Shame on Ice’
‘Matthews, Leafs yearn to shed playoff ‘choker’ label‘
Despite three Rocket Richard Trophies, an MVP, the first 69-goal season since Mario Lemieux, and 400 goals before his 28th birthday, the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ captain remains a lightning rod.
The degrading headlines above aren’t about Matthews, though.
Sure, similar pieces have been written. The Internet keeps receipts. These headlines were directed instead at Alex Ovechkin. You know, the greatest goal scorer of all-time and consensus top-10 player in NHL history?
The world can be a cruel place for the gifted. While athletes should not be immune to criticism, the Ovechkin headlines above are a cautionary tale. Narratives can both fade fast and shift gradually over time. At 28, Matthews has plenty of time to reach Ovechkin’s stratosphere.
💥 With Great Power…
Both Matthews and Ovechkin entered an NHL under similarly chaotic circumstances and with similarly high expectations as first-overall draft picks. Ovechkin’s post-lockout arrival is well documented. Eleven years later, Matthews was baptized into a hockey hotbed. A teenager with limitless potential and presumed savior of a storied, frustrated franchise nearing its 50th year without a Stanley Cup.
As the great philosopher Uncle Ben told his nephew Peter Parker in Spider-Man: “With great power comes great responsibility.” Fair or not, when you don’t deliver postseason success, things can get ugly. Forget the 82 games of excellence and entertainment.
Consider Matthews’ 2024-25 season. Transitioning to a new coach in Craig Berube, the mustachioed marksman took over the captaincy and led Toronto to an Atlantic Division-best, 108-point season. He scored at a 40-goal pace. He led Team USA to the top seed in the 4 Nations Face-off, finishing on the wrong end of what was, by all accounts, an overtime coin toss. The Leafs cruised into the second round of the playoffs, bowing out to the eventual two-time champion Florida Panthers in seven games.
Matthews navigated all of the above with an upper-body ailment visibly limiting his lethal shooting prowess. For most, it would be an extraordinary effort and a career year. But for a player residing in a relentless market with few peers from a talent perspective, it was deemed a failure. It’s the duality of being the star of the circus — there’s no room for error when everyone is watching.
🆚 Auston vs. Alex
Statistically, the Matthews-Ovechkin comparison is tight. When we stack their respective performances as snipers through their age-27 seasons, the difference is razor thin.
The pair are separated by fewer than two goals per 82 games. Coming off a down year by his standards, Matthews remains ahead of Ovechkin by 30 goals at the same age — 401 to 371. It’s an impressive lead, particularly since Matthews has 55 more even-strength goals than 27-year-old Ovechkin did. Matthews’ goals were scored taking over 500 fewer shots, too.
At 27, Matthews equaled Ovechkin’s Calder and three Rockets. Matthews is down 3-1 in Hart Trophies, but two of Ovechkin’s came in seasons where rival Sidney Crosby missed significant time to injury.
Injuries have cost Matthews valuable time as he’s reached 75 games just twice in nine seasons. Ovechkin, the epitome of durability, did not get a 19-year-old NHL season, however. Between the 2012-13 lockout and two pandemic-shortened schedules, there’s even further disruption in their respective game counts. Bundle it all together and Papi has edged Ovie by 30 goals in 28 more games at the same age.
This isn’t a space that predicts Matthews will wear the career goal-scoring crown one day, though. I’m on the record of saying it’s extremely unlikely — Ovechkin’s incomprehensible performance and health in his 30s are nearly impossible to replicate. But the two being so statistically similar at the same age shows the brilliant pace of Matthews’ first nine seasons.
📈 The Elusiveness of Consistency
No one has scored goals more reliably than Ovechkin over the course of a two-decade career. Yet, when we explore his 20s, we see… wild fluctuations?
The visual below shows Matthews and Ovechkin through their age-27 seasons. The figures are scaled to a neutral scoring climate — six goals per NHL game — and shown as 82-game paces. Doing so eliminates the noise of injuries, shortened schedules, and the tighter scoring environment of Ovechkin’s prime.
So much for consistency. Both players’ goal-scoring performances look more like an emergency room cardiac monitor than the annual results of generational snipers in their primes. At 26 years old? Matthews by 24 goals. At 27 years old? Ovechkin by 22 goals. An explicable 46-goal swing in pace.
It’s the reality of being a goal scorer. Major fluctuations in puck luck, linemate performance, power-play chemistry, opposition goaltending, coaching style and deployment, league-wide scoring environment, and health collectively alter goal totals. Talent is crucial, sure. But all-world goal-scoring chops don’t translate to consistent results. Even an 82-game season is often too small of a sample. The performance of two prodigious scorers in their formative years above is a clear illustration.
Yet, how many times after a slow start or bumpy month has Matthews — and Ovechkin before him — been talked down? Even the best of the best don’t score goals consistently in the modern NHL.
🚨 Auston vs. Everyone
On our pursuit of understanding Matthews’ place in the sport’s history, we’ll expand our search. Adjusting goals and games played to respective eras, Matthews’ peers through 27 years old comprise the short list of the greatest goal scorers to ever live.
From an efficiency perspective, Matthews trails only Lemieux and Ovechkin. At 53.3 adjusted goals per 82 games, Matthews narrowly edges Wayne Gretzky. Extraordinary company.
When it comes to adjusted goal count — remember, Matthews started young and thrived immediately — he’s second all-time at his age. His 432 adjusted goals trail only Gretzky (463), who famously transformed hockey in his 20s. That’s how dominant Matthews has been as a scorer.
Look past the chill demeanor, Justin Bieber bromance, and expressive fashion choices. You’ll find Matthews’ body of work to date belongs comfortably on the Mount Rushmore of Snipers. He has few equals in hockey history.
🏆 It Only Takes One Run
Of course, everything discussed today has been about the regular season. The postseason has been cruel to Matthews and his Leafs’ teammates. With 26 goals in 68 postseason games and reliable defensive play, Matthews hasn’t been awful. But overall, even his biggest defenders would concede he’s repeatedly been unable to take over a series when the temperature has cranked up.
A 2-9 career playoff series record will keep you up at night. So will an 0-6 record in Game 7s. Nightmare fuel.
The ease at which contemporaries Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Nikita Kucherov have found the scoresheet in the postseason hasn’t help ease the pressure.
But there’s potential light at the end of the tunnel. Presented below are Matthews, Ovechkin, and five Stanley Cup-winning Hall of Famers in the 500-goal club. At 27, things were bleak when it came to postseason success for all of them.
| Player | Season # of 1st Cup | Age at 1st Cup | Rounds Won, Age-27 Season | Cup Finals, Age-27 Season |
| Teemu Selanne | 14th | 36 | 1 | 0 |
| Steve Yzerman | 14th | 32 | 3 | 0 |
| Brett Hull | 13th | 34 | 4 | 0 |
| Alex Ovechkin | 13th | 32 | 3 | 0 |
| Marian Hossa | 12th | 31 | 3 | 0 |
| Brendan Shanahan | 10th | 28 | 2 | 0 |
| Auston Matthews | Entering 10th | ?? | 2 | 0 |
Not one of the players above had played in a Stanley Cup Final by 27. The group took between 10 and 14 seasons to lift the Cup for the first time. Collectively, they averaged just 2.7 rounds won at Matthews’ age — that’s with each playing in an NHL with fewer teams.
Ovechkin, commencing his 21st NHL season, has won an incredible 12 division titles and three Presidents’ Trophies. Yet, he’s played beyond the second round of the playoffs only once — the Washington Capitals‘ 2018 Stanley Cup title. He’s played in three Olympics without a medal, including an embarrassing flameout on home soil in Sochi in 2014.
Yet, all it took was one successful playoff run — on a team thought to be past its competitive window — to remove the monkey from Ovechkin’s back. Sound familiar? That’s the model for Matthews. All Ovechkin’s past failures were forgotten overnight.
💭 Closing Thoughts
On a Leafs team long accustomed to pain, Matthews is facing arguably the most tempered team expectations in Toronto since his rookie season. He’s finally at full health. His first Olympic opportunity is slated for February. Bestie Mitch Marner — and his contract distractions — have skipped town. Maybe this is The Year. Ovechkin was still four years away from his only Conference Finals to date at Matthews’ age.
At 28, Matthews has been one of the very best goal scorers to ever live. He’s scored more times than Ovechkin at the same age. Matthews has been a Selke finalist in a 69-goal season — no one has topped 43 goals and gotten that kind of two-way respect in the salary cap era. He’s already built a Hall of Fame career. He’s done it all while while growing up in Toronto’s media frenzy.
Matthews is one great playoff run from being the next Ovechkin. But he doesn’t need to become Ovechkin. Matthews is an original… in skill set, personality, and style. The best thing he can be — this season and beyond — is himself. The rest will take care of itself.
Data from Hockey-Reference and NHL.com
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