Best NHL picks and props (Nov. 25): Five plays for an action-packed Monday
Join Daily Faceoff betting analysts Andy MacNeil and Nick Martin as they share their best NHL picks and props for an action-packed Monday.
Jordan Kyrou Anytime Goal: +260 (Andy)
St. Louis Blues President of Hockey Operations and General Manager Doug Armstrong announced Sunday that Drew Bannister had been relieved of his coaching duties, with recently dismissed Jim Montgomery signing a five-year contract as the team’s 28th head coach. The Blues, who have dropped 10 of their last 14 games, are grappling with a 30th-ranked offense that has managed two or fewer goals in 12 of their last 19 games. However, Montgomery’s track record raises questions, as his previous team, the Boston Bruins, currently rank last in offense at 32nd.
Even so, a fresh voice behind the bench could energize the Blues. Jordan Kyrou, in particular, might be encouraged to stay aggressive. Kyrou has recorded three or more shots on goal in 15 of his 22 games this season but is shooting below 10 percent, a mark he hasn’t seen since his rookie year. While the Rangers are a tough opponent, they rank third-worst in shots against, and Igor Shesterkin has allowed three or more goals in six of his last nine games. Kyrou only has one goal in his last eight games, but with Robert Thomas back for his fourth straight game, Monday offers a good opportunity to back Kyrou to score an anytime goal at +260 odds.
Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline: -140 (Andy)
Vegas could be without one of its top defenders for a third consecutive game on Monday, but Alex Pietrangelo (day-to-day) has not been ruled out against the Flyers. Meanwhile, Golden Knights captain Mark Stone has missed the last eight games, but he is with the team on the road and could be eligible to return Monday in Philadelphia or Wednesday in Colorado. Still, the Golden Knights have defeated every team they should beat, and the Flyers are a beatable opponent, even if Ivan Fedotov has looked better in goal as of late.
Philadelphia has won seven of its last 12 games, but the Flyers only have nine wins all season and most have come against teams that missed the playoffs last season and aren’t projected to qualify this season. Percentage-wise, the Flyers currently rank among the bottom five teams in shots, goals, and expected goals at five-on-five, according to Evolving Hockey. Moreover, the Flyers have allowed the third-most goals (per 60) at five-on-five, while Vegas ranks third in five-on-five scoring. Therefore, the Golden Knights grade out as a solid moneyline bet at -140.
Matt Boldy Over 2.5 Shots On Goal: -115 (Andy)
Star forward Kirill Kaprizov sustained a lower-body injury during the second period of Thursday’s 5-3 win over the Oilers in Edmonton and was absent from Sunday’s game against the Flames in Calgary. Encouragingly, an MRI confirmed he avoided a serious injury, and was a participant in Monday morning line rushes on the top line, indicating he has a good chance of playing.
Kaprizov has tallied six goals and 13 assists in 12 career games against Winnipeg. However, despite his contributions—four goals and seven assists in those meetings—the Wild have dropped their last six matchups against the Jets. This underscores the need for a standout performance on Monday, and Matt Boldy could be the key, even if Kaprizov suits up and is healthy enough to continue producing at a high level. Boldy has amassed 68 goals and 96 assists in 200 career games with Kaprizov, but has stepped up impressively in Kaprizov’s absence, recording 18 goals and 11 assists in 23 games. Either way, this is a good spot to back Boldy to pepper the net.
Boldy has notably increased his shot volume in games without Kaprizov, and with three or more shots on goal in 14 of 20 games this season, he’s a strong candidate to reach that mark again. He’s hit at least three shots on goal in 11 of his last 14 games overall, and that trend, combined with reasonable -115 odds, makes him a worthwhile bet against a Jets team that ranks in the league’s bottom 10 for suppressing unblocked shot attempts.
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Semyon Varlamov Under 2.5 Goals Against: -115 (Nick)
The Red Wings managed a 2-1 win over the Islanders last week, and also suffered a 1-0 loss in Detroit on October 22nd. It seems logical to target a similar game script in tonight’s matchup, and it continues to look likely that those type of scorelines will be common when the Islanders take on more muted offensive sides.
Last week’s matchup was the final game of a five-game road trip for the Islanders, and they returned home with a solid 3-1 win over the Blues on Saturday. In the month of November, they have allowed just 2.36 goals against per game, and hold an 11th-ranked xGA/60 of 2.88.
Semyon Varlamov has allowed two goals or less in four straight starts, and holds a .946 save % in that span. He put up a +9.1 GSAx and .918 save % in 20 appearances in 2023-24.
The Red Wings’ offensive play has been quite modest all season long, and has been particularly concerning of late. In the month of November, they have scored just 2.2 goals for per game, and rank 29th in xGF/60 across all strengths.
The Red Wings power play has remained lethal this month (33.3% success rate), but outside of Lucas Raymond and Dylan Larkin, offensive depth at even strength has been a significant concern.
Daniel Sprong Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: -120 (Nick)
Sprong has his pitfalls on the defensive side of the puck, which continues to lead to him falling out of favor with a number of different organizations, despite the fact that he has always held elite scoring rates per 60.
With Jordan Eberle sidelined, Sprong has inherited some good roles in the Kraken lineup, and the Ducks provide a great matchup for him to pour shots on target. He’s skated on the second line and second power-play unit the last two games, and put up nine shots on goal, including three versus a stingy Kings side on Saturday.
Sprong has attempted 16.93 shots per 60 this season, and managed 10.91 on target per 60. He led the Red Wings last season with 19.67 attempts per 60, and has consistently generated plenty of volume in limited minutes over the last several seasons.
The problem has always been ice time, but he is arguably the Kraken’s second-best finishing threat and should be a decent bet to continue getting steady minutes for the time being.
Anaheim has allowed 34.07 shots against per 60 this season, which is the highest mark in the NHL.
All odds in this article are courtesy of Sports Interaction.