Best NHL Player Prop Bets (Oct. 17): Play this points parlay in Lightning vs. Red Wings
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Friday’s four-game NHL slate.
Best Bet – Nikita Kucherov/Brayden Point Over 0.5 Points Parlay: -125 (bet365, play to -130)
Kucherov has produced 52 points in 40 games versus the Red Wings throughout his career, and recorded six points in four games versus Detroit last season. Though Kucherov has had a fairly quiet start to the campaign with three points in four games, I’m happy to bet into that trend in this matchup.
Tampa Bay’s top line of Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Brandon Hagel looked very dangerous versus the Washington Capitals on Tuesday, and was statistically strong in combining for 1.55 expected goals while holding a 61% expected goal share.
In 33.1 minutes of even-strength play this season, the trio has generated 3.45 expected goals per 60. They weren’t together often last season, but scored 4.25 actual goals per 60 in a small sample of play.
The Red Wings have looked much better defensively so far this season, but it still seems fair to assume that they will trend towards more average results, based on a fairly average blue-line and an offensive core that does not feature a ton of strong two-way players.
It’s early, but this is a big spot for the Lightning to get back in the win column versus a division rival. I think we will see head coach Jon Cooper lean on his top dogs in Kucherov and Point in this matchup, and I think they will be productive together after a strong showing in Washington on Tuesday evening.
Best Bet – Nick Schmaltz Anytime Goalscorer +230 (Sports Interaction, play to +210)
The Mammoth are priced at -140 to record four or more goals in tonight’s matchup versus the San Jose Sharks, who have allowed 3.84 goals against per game dating back to the start of last season.
This looks like a great spot to sprinkle some player props involving the Mammoth’s highly talented top six, and a price of +230 for Schmaltz to tally his first of the year really stands out to me.
Schmaltz started last season with an absurd 23-game goalless drought, before racking up 20 goals in the remaining 59 games of the season.
Based on the amount of high-quality looks Schmaltz has gotten playing on a high-quality top line alongside Clayton Keller and Barrett Hayton, as well as on what should be a strong Mammoth power play, his goalless drought won’t go on much longer.
Schmaltz has already attempted 26 shots this season and poured 16 on target. He ranks 42nd among all NHL skaters with 2.1 expected goals, and is a capable finisher with a career shooting percentage of 13.4.
Utah’s top line has outchanced opponents quite significantly this season, generating a whopping 4.88 xGF/60, which is the 12th-highest mark among all offensive trios so far this season, albeit obviously in a small sample size.
Considering the soft matchup and the amount of quality looks Schmaltz has had this season, I’m quite happy to back him tallying his first of the year at a long price of +220.
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