Best NHL player prop bets (Oct. 23): Savoie promoted to Oilers’ top line
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Thursday’s 12-game NHL slate.
Best Bet – Mika Zibanejad Over 1.5 Points: +185 (bet365, play to +175)
The New York Rangers are 0-4-0 on home ice this season and have scored just one goal in that span. The underlying results suggest they have been very unlucky not to produce more offense, but that argument only goes so far, and it will be completely embarrassing if the team does not manage a strong offensive output in tonight’s matchup versus the San Jose Sharks.
The Sharks have allowed 4.83 goals against per game this season, thanks to a horrible combination of awful defensive play and shaky goaltending. They have allowed 4.09 xGA/60 and received a team save percentage of just .863.
As a result, the Rangers have a high implied total in this matchup, and I’m buying into the hype that tonight is the night they send the crowd home happy with an exciting win. The Rangers have generated 3.45 xGF/60, and aside from their disappointing performance on Monday versus the Wild, my opinion watching their games is that they have been better offensively than the numbers suggest.
While I’m not sold on the Rangers’ bottom six ever being overly productive this season, their top line of Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, and William Cuylle has looked very threatening, and I’m in agreement with the statistics that suggest they are bound for much greater production.
They hold a 65.2% expected goal share in 34 minutes together, which is not surprising as they have looked quite strong. And while Panarin is obviously expected to be the main producer from the trio, it’s Zibanejad who has consistently looked like the most dangerous Rangers skater this season.
In an ideal matchup on home ice, I’m happy to buy into the Rangers finally getting right offensively and believe, at +185, we are getting a good price to target Zibanejad producing two points given the way he has generated both scoring chance assists and quality shots on target this season.
Best Bet – Matthew Savoie Over 0.5 Points: +132, Anytime Goal-Scorer: +425 (bet365, play to +120 and +410)
Backing Savoie will undoubtedly be one of the most popular angles for bettors looking at tonight’s slate, as he will line up alongside Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday against the Montreal Canadiens.
Savoie has recorded just one point in his first seven games of the season, so obviously we are really crediting his expected role in tonight’s matchup to like him at these kinds of prices.
Obviously any NHL skater has a chance at success alongside McDavid and Draisaitl, but Savoie’s profile suggests he has the type of offensive skillset to fit in well with the pair of Hart Trophy winners, even if he’s been quiet this season while playing further down the lineup card.
Savoie is a strong skater who is threatening off of the rush, has a good touch, and has a strong understanding of spacing in the offensive zone. He was selected ninth overall in 2022, and recorded 54 points in 69 AHL games last season.
Though the Canadiens are 6-2-0, it’s still fair to rate a home matchup versus the Canadiens on the second leg of a back-to-back as a better-than-average spot for production.
The Canadiens have allowed 3.18 xGA/60 this season and have played a very soft schedule of opposing offenses. As someone who was high on the Canadiens entering the year relative to oddsmakers’ expectations, I’m still not sold that what we have seen so far proves their defensive structure will be that drastically improved compared to what it was last year.
Canadiens starter Samuel Montembeault has also struggled to a -3.6 GSAx and .854 save percentage in four appearances this season, though he will likely stabilize moving forward.
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