Breaking down every Round 1 goaltending matchup in 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs

Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The field of 16 teams is set for the Stanley Cup playoffs. And there are plenty of intriguing goalie matchups. One thing I can promise: before the end of the first round, more than 16 goalies will play. So what are each team’s strengths and weaknesses? Are some goalies better suited to play against a specific team? Read on to find out.

COLORADO AVALANCHE vs. SEATTLE KRAKEN

Colorado Avalanche

Alexandar Georgiev
2022-23 regular season: 40-16-6, 2.53 GAA, .919 Sv%, 5 shutouts
Career playoffs: 0-1, 2.04 GAA, .935 Sv%, 0 shutouts

Pavel Francouz
2022-23 regular season: 16-8-7, 2.61 GAA, .915 Sv%, 1 shutout
Career playoffs: 8-4, 3.01 GAA, .899 Sv%, 2 shutouts, 2022 Stanley Cup Champion

Seattle Kraken

Philipp Grubauer
2022-23 regular season: 17-14-4, 2.85 GAA, .895 Sv%, 0 shutouts
Career playoffs: 19-11, 2.50 GAA, .913 Sv%, 2 shutouts, 2018 Stanley Cup Champion

Martin Jones
2022-23 regular season: 27-13-3, 2.99 GAA, .887 Sv%, 3 shutouts
Career playoffs: 32-27, 2.37 GAA, .917 Sv%, 6 shutouts, 2014 Stanley Cup Champion

Joey Daccord
2022-23 regular season: 2-1-1, 3.14 GAA, .900 Sv%, 0 shutouts
Career playoffs: none

Georgiev has impressed in his debut year as an NHL No.1 goaltender, backstopping the Avalanche to first in the Central division. He was streaky at times this season, but Georgiev ironed things out in the latter half of the campaign. Francouz missed a decent chunk of the season due to injury, but is now back to provide Georgiev a proper security blanket.

While I am bullish on Georgiev, his previous seasons with the New York Rangers make me nervous. As soon as Igor Shesterkin started to challenge for the crease, and the intensity ratcheted up, Georgiev’s game fell apart. His biggest challenge in the postseason might be himself.

For the Kraken, it became apparent towards the end of the regular season that Grubauer would be the team’s starting netminder for the Stanley Cup playoffs. After March 1, the Seattle netminder went 9-3-1 and started 13 of 19 games.

Since he signed with the Kraken in advance of the team’s inaugural 2021-22 NHL season, Grubauer’s game has been a work in progress. He had a disastrous first season in Seattle. But his play and confidence have been trending in the right direction lately. Grubauer is a fantastic skater, but at times his explosiveness can get him into trouble. It’s imperative for Grubauer to get his feet set early against his former Avalanche teammates.

Colorado’s power play is beyond scary. And the Avalanche can bury on the rush. Both areas are concerning for Seattle, as their penalty kill hasn’t been very strong. And the Kraken love to trade chances in transition.

DALLAS STARS vs. MINNESOTA WILD

Dallas Stars

Jake Oettinger
2022-23 regular season: 37-11-11, 2.37 GAA, .919 Sv%, 5 shutouts
Career playoffs: 3-4, 1.67 GAA, .956 Sv%, 1 shutout

Scott Wedgewood
2022-23 regular season: 9-8-3, 2.72 GAA, .915 Sv%, 1 shutout
Career playoffs: none

Minnesota Wild

Marc-Andre Fleury
2022-23 regular season: 24-26-4, 2.85 GAA, .908 Sv%, 2 shutouts
Career playoffs: 92-73, 2.54 GAA, .912 Sv%, 16 shutouts, 2009, 2016, 2017 Stanley Cup Champion

Filip Gustavsson
2022-23 regular season: 22-9-7, 2.10 GAA, .931 Sv%, 3 shutouts
Career playoffs: none

Oettinger made himself a household name last season with an incredible first round Stanley Cup playoff series against the Calgary Flames. Despite ultimately losing out, Oettinger was icy cool in the Dallas crease. And his playoff experience carried into the 2022-23 season; Oettinger was one of the NHL’s top goaltenders during the regular season.

Playing against Minnesota is a favorable matchup for Oettinger. The Stars netminder went 2-0-1 against the Wild this season. And no doubt he’ll be fired up to play in his home state: Oettinger hails from Lakeville, MN. His technique is rock solid. But at times Oettinger can struggle to rotate efficiently. Minnesota will need to move the puck laterally to beat him.

While the Stars have a clear No.1 goaltender, the Wild have a dilemma. It remains to be seen whether Fleury or Gustavsson will start Game 1 for Minnesota. From a statistical standpoint, Gustavsson deserves to play. But Fleury has pedigree, and the future Hall of Famer posted a .918 save percentage in his last 10 games.

For me, Gustavsson is more predictable than Fleury, and in a good way. There hasn’t been much fluctuation to the Swede’s play this season. While Fleury has been hot and cold. Wild coach Dean Evason is on record saying he’s willing to use them as a tandem during the Stanley Cup playoffs. But when’s the last time that actually worked?

Last season the Wild manufactured their own goaltending controversy when the team acquired Fleury at the trade deadline. This year has featured perfect harmony in the crease. Gustavsson and Fleury root for one another. But if Minnesota is going to challenge for the Stanley Cup, I think one of them needs to grab hold of the crease and never look back.

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS vs. WINNIPEG JETS

Vegas Golden Knights

Laurent Brossoit
2022-23 regular season: 7-0-3, 2.17 GAA, .927 Sv%, 0 shutouts
Career playoffs: 0-0, 4.42 GAA, .750 Sv%, 0 shutouts

Jonathan Quick
2022-23 regular season: (LAK) 11-13-4, 3.50 GAA, .876 Sv%, 1 shutout
2022-23 regular season: (VGK) 5-2-2, 3.13 GAA, .901 Sv%, 1 shutout
Career playoffs: 49-43, 2.31 GAA, .921 Sv%, 10 shutouts, 2012 & 2014 Stanley Cup Champion, 2012 Conn Smythe Trophy

Adin Hill
2022-23 regular season: 16-7-1, 2.50 GAA, .915 Sv%, 0 shutouts
Career playoffs: none

Winnipeg Jets

Connor Hellebuyck
2022-23 regular season: 37-25-2, 2.49 GAA, .920 Sv%, 4 shutouts
Career playoffs: 16-19, 2.46 GAA, .921 Sv%, 3 shutouts

David Rittich
2022-23 regular season: 9-8-1, 2.67 GAA, .901 Sv%, 0 shutouts
Career playoffs: 0-2, 15.17 GAA, .636 Sv%, 0 shutouts

Several weeks ago, the Golden Knights had a mess on their hands. Four one-way contracted goaltenders were in the mix to start Game 1 of the Stanley Cup playoffs. But Laurent Brossoit went 10 games without losing in regulation, Logan Thompson and Adin Hill continued to recover from injuries, and Jonathan Quick faltered. The result? Brossoit won the Vegas crease.

While he deserves to start Game 1, Brossoit does come with question marks. He’s been a career No. 2 goaltender, and Brossoit spent the majority of the 2023-23 season in the AHL with the Henderson Silver Knights. He’s also 0-1-2 lifetime against the Jets, with an .880 save percentage. But what Brossoit has going for him is predictability. He’s by far the best technical goaltender in the Vegas stable – a perfect match to coach Bruce Cassidy’s system.

Should Brossoit struggle, Quick is likely next in line for the Golden Knights. But it’s been several years since he’s been at his best, and the 2022-23 season in particular was disastrous. Simply put: the Kings lost faith in the franchise icon, and the agonizing decision to move on from Quick was made. Can he turn his play around if called upon? Quick’s playoff numbers suggest he can. But the recent eye test is worrisome.

There are zero questions in Winnipeg when it comes to goaltending. Hellebuyck should be a Vezina Trophy finalist, and he was unquestionably the Jets’ most valuable player during the 2022-23 season. In his last 14 stars, Hellebuyck never allowed more than three goals.

The Winnipeg netminder has been money in the postseason, routinely outplaying the Jets team in front of him during his eight-year NHL career. But the challenge for Hellebuyck in this matchup is Vegas’ rush game. The Golden Knights are one of the NHL’s best at generating chances in transition – an area of weakness for Winnipeg.

EDMONTON OILERS vs. LOS ANGELES KINGS

Edmonton Oilers

Stuart Skinner
2022-23 regular season: 29-14-5, 2.75 GAA, .914 Sv%, 1 shutout
Career playoffs: none

Jack Campbell
2022-23 regular season: 21-9-4, 3.41 GAA, .888 Sv%, 1 shutout
Career playoffs: 6-8, 2.45 GAA, .915 Sv%, 2 shutouts

Los Angeles Kings

Joonas Korpisalo
2022-23 regular season: (CBJ) 11-11-3, 3.17 GAA, .913 Sv%, 0 shutouts
2022-23 regular season: (LAK) 7-3-1, 2.13 GAA, .921 Sv%, 1 shutout
Career playoffs: 3-5, 1.90 GAA, .941 Sv%, 2 shutouts

Pheonix Copley
2022-23 regular season: 24-6-3, 2.64 GAA, .903 Sv%, 1 shutout
Career playoffs: none

Flashback to April 2022 and none of the four goalies listed above was a member of their current NHL team. That’s pretty wild to think about. But Skinner was in Edmonton’s system, biding his time in AHL Bakersfield. And this year, Skinner cashed in on an extended understudy program. The Edmonton netminder appeared in the 2023 All-Star Game and should be a contender for the Calder Memorial Trophy as the NHL’s rookie of the year.

What I appreciate about Skinner is his consistency. He had a .914 save percentage after March 1: exactly the same number as his season mark. And he got better as the year went on. Skinner allowed just five goals in his last five starts during the regular season. While he might not the be most explosive goaltender in the NHL, or the best puckhandler, Skinner is really disciplined in his movements. He gets square to the shooter early and corrals rebounds.

How will the Edmonton native handle the pressure of the Stanley Cup playoffs while playing for his hometown team? That’s the big question. But I think his demeanor is well-suited to pressure situations. Skinner was lights out against the Kings this year, going 2-1 with a .950 save percentage.

The Kings crease looks very different now than it did at the start of the season when Jonathan Quick (now with Vegas) and Cal Petersen (now with the AHL’s Ontario Reign) were the team’s tandem. Both struggled mightily, and by mid-season, Copley took over L.A.’s crease.

The 2022-23 season has been nothing short of magical for Copley, who re-established himself as an NHL netminder by virtue of winning. His numbers aren’t eye-catching but Copley stabilized the Kings’ crease and put the team firmly in the Stanley Cup playoff race.

But despite winning two-thirds of his starts for L.A., Copley has zero Stanley Cup playoff experience. So the Kings picked up Joonas Korpisalo from the Blue Jackets at the trade deadline, a goaltender most remembered for his magical run during the 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs. The Finnish netminder had a strong 2022-23 season on a terrible Columbus team, and he carried that strong play to the City of Angels.

I expect Korpisalo to start Game 1, but Copley’s regular season success can’t be ignored. And both goalies were good down the stretch. Copley posted a .915 save percentage in 10 games after March 1, but he was slightly edged by Kopisalo’s .921 in 11 outings. The dynamic nature of Korpisalo’s game is also favorable against the uptempo and offensively gifted Oilers.

BOSTON BRUINS vs. FLORIDA PANTHERS

Boston Bruins

Linus Ullmark
2022-23 regular season: 40-6-1, 1.89 GAA, .938 Sv%, 2 shutouts
Career playoffs: 0-2, 4.16 GAA, .860 Sv%, 0 shutouts

Jeremy Swayman
2022-23 regular season: 24-6-4, 2.27 GAA, .920 Sv%, 4 shutouts
Career playoffs: 3-3, 2.67 GAA, .906 Sv%, 0 shutouts

Florida Panthers

Alex Lyon
2022-23 regular season: 9-4-2, 2.89 GAA, .914 Sv%, 1 shutout
Career playoffs: none

Sergei Bobrovsky
2022-23 regular season: 24-20-3, 3.07 GAA, .901, 1 shutout
Career playoffs: 17-29, 3.13 GAA, .901 Sv%, 0 shutouts

The 2022-23 Bruins are outrageously good. And Ullmark has been a big part of the team’s success. He’s almost guaranteed to win the Vezina Trophy. And I love how free he looks in and out of the net: who could forget his goalie goal this season?

But none of that matters if he can’t get it done in the Stanley Cup playoffs. And last year didn’t end well for Ullmark, who struggled during the postseason. I’m sure the Swedish netminder is eager to vanquish those demons, and his play this year suggests he should have no problem doing so. But should Ullmark falter, Swayman provides quality insurance for Bruins coach Jim Montgomery.

With Florida, it’s hard to predict what might happen. But Lyon was absolutely dynamite down the stretch for the Panthers, at one point winning six straight games and carrying Florida to a berth in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

The bottom line is that Lyon deserves to start Game 1. Bobrovsky had several runs of brilliant play this season for Florida, but he simply didn’t show the consistency necessary to be counted on. Can Lyon keep up his strong play? Maybe. He’s looked completely in control recently. And he won the 2022 Calder Cup in the AHL with the Chicago Wolves.

With Bobrovsky coming off a prolonged sickness – and losing the net to Lyon – I’m not sure where his game would be should find himself back in the Panthers crease. And Florida really struggles to defend.

Going up against the record-setting Bruins, the Panthers will need exceptional goaltending to win. But I don’t think Ullmark and Swayman have that same kind of pressure. All they have to do is not lose games on their own for Boston.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Toronto Maple Leafs

Ilya Samsonov
2022-23 regular season: 27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 Sv%, 4 shutouts
Career playoffs: 1-6, 2.98 GAA, .907 Sv%, 0 shutouts

Joseph Woll
2022-23 regular season: 6-1-0, 2.16 GAA, .932 Sv%, 0 shutouts
Career playoffs: none

Matt Murray
2022-23 regular season: 14-8-2, 3.01 GAA, .903 Sv%, 1 shutout
Career playoffs: 29-21, 2.18 GAA, .921 Sv%, 6 shutouts, 2016 & 2017 Stanley Cup champion

Tampa Bay Lightning

Andrei Vasilevskiy
2022-23 regular season: 34-22-4, 2.65 GAA, .915 Sv%, 4 shutouts
Career playoffs: 63-38, 2.30 GAA, .923 Sv%, 7 shutouts, 2020 & 2021 Stanley Cup champion, 2021 Conn Smythe Trophy

Brian Elliott
2022-23 regular season: 12-8-2, 3.40 GAA, .891 Sv%, 2 shutouts
Career playoffs: 17-26, 2.72, .904 Sv%, 1 shutout

It’s Vasilevskiy versus Samsonov, two Russian netminders at the top of their craft. And it’s two teams – the Maple Leafs and Lightning – that have played several high-intensity games recently. But here’s where things get interesting: Samsonov has been battling an injury. And Murray has been sidelined with a concussion.

In Murray’s absence, Joseph Woll has been outstanding. But the Leafs crease is still Samsonov’s – as long as he’s healthy enough to start Game 1. The 2022-23 season has been the best of Samsonov’s career, and I think he’s playing with a noticeable swagger. His team believes in him: something I’m not sure he had with his previous team, the Washington Capitals.

What makes me nervous about Samsonov is that he still has a tendency to drop early and end up chasing the play, sliding on his knees. When he’d be better served staying on his edges and being patient. But I like his trajectory and think he’s capable of breaking out this postseason.

Not much needs to be said about Vasilevskiy. He’s the best money goaltender in hockey, and he has the hardware (see above) to prove it. But something I’ve really come to appreciate about ‘The Big Cat’ is how durable he is. Vasilevskiy is almost always available – which has to be reassuring for Lightning coach Jon Cooper.

Historically, Vasilevskiy has been very strong against Toronto. He holds a career 14-10-2 record and .920 save percentage against the Leafs. But this season is the first time I’ve had worries about Vasilevskiy heading into the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Tampa Bay didn’t have the greatest finish to the season, and Vasilevskiy went 6-7-2 in his last 15 games. He also allowed six or more goals on four occasions this year, a first for his career. But despite warning signs that Vasilevskiy might be due for a regression, his play over the course of the 2022-23 regular season says otherwise. And his record during the Stanley Cup playoffs speaks for itself.

CAROLINA HURRICANES vs. NEW YORK ISLANDERS

Carolina Hurricanes

Frederik Andersen
2022-23 regular season: 21-11-1, 2.48 GAA, .903 Sv%, 1 shutout
Career playoffs: 27-23, 2.55, .916, 3 shutouts

Antti Raanta
2022-23 regular season: 19-3-3, 2.23 GAA, .910 Sv%, 4 shutouts
Career playoffs: 6-6, 2.48, .912, 1 shutout

Pyotr Kochetkov
2022-23 regular season: 12-7-5, 2.44 GAA, .909 Sv%, 4 shutouts
Career playoffs: 1-2, 3.89 GAA, .869 Sv%, 0 shutouts

New York Islanders

Ilya Sorokin
2022-23 regular season: 31-22-7, 2.34 GAA, .924 Sv%, 6 shutouts
Career playoffs: 4-1, 2.79 GAA, .922 Sv%, 0 shutouts

Semyon Varlamov
2022-23 regular season: 11-9-2, 2.70 GAA, .913 Sv%, 2 shutouts
Career playoffs: 31-27, 2.42 GAA, .919 Sv%, 4 shutouts

The Islanders have to feel extremely confident in their goaltending. Sorokin is coming off yet another award-worthy season. And his consistency over the course of his entire pro career – whether it be the KHL or NHL – has been stunning. Few goalies can navigate the balance between technical and feel-based goaltending like Sorokin.

Despite a .911 save percentage in four games against the Hurricanes, Sorokin only had a record of 1-3 during the regular season. Which underscores the Islanders’ inability to score. Simply put: without Sorokin, the Islanders wouldn’t be in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Varlamov is a fine goaltender. He was good for Long Island this year. But for whatever reason, he didn’t win games at the same rate as Sorokin. Body control, technique, skating, and steely resolve – it’s all there for the talented Russian.

As high as I am on the Islanders’ goaltending, I can’t say the same about the Hurricanes. It’s not that Andersen, Raanta, or Kochetkov have been particularly bad this season. It’s that none of them has been great. And for a team like Carolina that – just like the Islanders – struggles to find the back of the net, adequate goaltending probably won’t be good enough to win.

Andersen and Raanta have both spent time on the shelf due to injury. And despite a hot start to the season, Kochetkov had a rough finish at the NHL level. Even when healthy, Andersen has looked shaky. And I think it comes from a lack of work. The Hurricanes are so good defensively that I’m not sure Andersen has been able to get a feel for his own game.

Will Raanta be the answer if Andersen can’t get it done? Can he stay healthy? I’m not sure. He’s a good goaltender that seems to always get hurt at the wrong time. As for Kochetkov, when Andersen was out of the lineup, his play made me believe that he’d be the leading candidate to grab the Hurricanes net in the postseason. But then he allowed 14 goals in his last four starts.

Carolina has capable goaltenders. But I think they’ll need to be better than they were during the regular season if they want to get past Sorokin and the Islanders.

NEW JERSEY DEVILS vs. NEW YORK RANGERS

New Jersey Devils

Vitek Vanecek
2022-23 regular season: 33-11-4, 2.45 GAA, .911 Sv%, 3 shutouts
Career playoffs: 1-1, 4.25 GAA, .855 Sv%, 0 shutouts

Mackenzie Blackwood
2022-23 regular season: 10-6-2, 3.20 GAA, .893 Sv%, 0 shutouts
Career playoffs: none

Akira Schmid
2022-23 regular season: 9-5-2, 2.13 GAA, .922 Sv%, 1 shutout
Career playoffs: none

New York Rangers

Igor Shesterkin
2022-23 regular season: 37-13-8, 2.48 GAA, .916 Sv%, 3 shutouts
Career playoffs: 10-10, 2.61 GAA, .928 Sv%, 0 shutouts

Jaroslav Halak
2022-23 regular season: 10-9-5, 2.72 GAA, .903 Sv%, 1 shutout
Career playoffs: 17-20, 2.48 GAA, .919 Sv%, 0 shutouts

The Devils might be the better team in the standings, but if the series comes down to goaltending, which side would you take? If your answer isn’t the Rangers, I can tell you only looked at the stat sheet. Because while I love how Vanecek has stabilized the New Jersey crease, Shesterkin has put on yet another clinic this season between the pipes for the Rangers.

Now, I’m not suggesting Vanecek isn’t capable of winning this series. The Devils goaltender went 3-0-1 this season against New York. I love his attitude and the fact that Vanecek worked tirelessly to get to this point in his career.

But Shesterkin is a top-five goalie in the world. And after knocking off the Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes during last season’s Stanley Cup playoffs, he knows what it takes to close out a series. If Shesterkin’s .916 save percentage seems off, consider he sits fifth among NHL netminders in goals saved above expected (moneypuck.com), just behind Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets.

Vanecek’s Stanley Cup playoff experience isn’t extensive, but there is concern. He’s made three starts and been pulled twice. And last year with Washington, he wasn’t able to beat out then-goalie partner Ilya Samsonov for the Capitals crease.

I think Vanecek’s game is well-rounded and lacking any real weakness. He’s not the most explosive goalie but he can cover ground quickly. And I love that Vanecek started his career in the ECHL and has earned everything during his rise to the NHL. But Schmid is knocking on the door, and at times this season, looked like he was ready to steal the Devils’ crease.

Vanecek has a lot to prove in this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs. But he already passed the regular season test with flying colors. And it’s always easier to be the underdog.

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