Brock Seguin’s 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Breakout Candidates

Every fantasy hockey season brings a new crop of players ready to take their game to the next level. Whether it’s a young player stepping into a larger role, a talented player finally putting it all together, or someone poised to smash their career highs, identifying breakouts before draft day can provide a significant advantage.

The DFO Fantasy team has identified their top breakout candidates for the 2026-27 season. Below, each of our four analysts shares their picks and explains why they believe these players are ready to take a significant step forward.

All Breakout Candidates:

• Beebs Bondy’s Fantasy Hockey Breakout Candidates
• Matt Larkin’s Fantasy Hockey Breakout Candidates
• Nick Szeman’s Fantasy Hockey Breakout Candidates

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Adam Fantilli – CBJ – C

Fantilli was one of my favourite fantasy picks last fall, and the underlying numbers suggest he should have finished with far more than 24 goals and 59 points in 82 games. Let’s break down why.

He got the ice-time bump I expected, going from 17:29 to 18:54, with 1:02 of the jump coming on the power play — but the power-play production still didn’t follow (four PPG, 13 PPP). That’s where the first layer of growth lives. Columbus’s unit ranked 22nd (18.9%), Fantilli personally scored 3.5 goals below expected, and the unit scored 6.0 below expected with him on the ice. None of that is a talent problem; the unit is due for some positive regression this season.

The second layer is bigger. At 5v5, Fantilli ranked 20th in the NHL in expected goals (20.7) but 95th in actual goals (14) — 6.7 below expected, the 27th-most snakebitten skater in the league. Over the last two seasons, he’s tied for 22nd in the NHL in 5v5 goals despite that, which tells you the even-strength creation is already elite. He’s not waiting on role growth. He’s waiting for the puck to go in.

The post-Olympic stretch showed what that looks like: 11 goals and 12 assists in 26 games, an 84-game pace of 36 goals, 39 assists (75 points), 218 shots and 168 hits. That’s a category stuffer, and he’s going in the late-8th/early-9th round. My projection lands at 32-36-67 — the regressed version, with the post-Olympic pace as the ceiling case — and even the regressed version is a value at that draft cost. A little puck luck and a functioning power play, and Fantilli jumps several tiers.

Luke Hughes — NJD — D

Hughes has been solid through three NHL seasons, averaging 42 points (7G/35A) a year — and a few things are setting up for the monster version in 2026-27. Last season his ice time jumped from 21:09 to 23:01 and his shot rate climbed to 5.71 SOG/60, producing a career-high 150 shots despite 14 missed games. The inputs all rose. The results didn’t.

The reason is that the Devils ran ice cold all season — historically cold. The top four players in the NHL in on-ice goals scored below expected were all New Jersey Devils, and Hughes’ 35.5 was the worst mark of any defenseman in the league. His own shooting told the same story: top-10 among defensemen in expected goals per game, third-most goals below expected (−7.3). No defenseman had a more snakebitten season. Not one.

Ordinary puck luck alone spikes his goals and assists. Then there’s the second lever: the power play. Last year he and Dougie Hamilton split PP1 time almost evenly, despite Hughes grading as the better quarterback by every tracking metric (all stats per60 and per SportLogiq):

Player	Offence Generating Plays	Possession Driving	Slot Driving Plays
Luke Hughes	46.7	116.4	26.2
Dougie Hamilton	31.5	50.3	15.4

That’s not a competition; it’s a formality the Devils haven’t finalized. If the split becomes his outright, the assist ceiling opens completely.

And the modest surface totals are doing you a favour: his ADP is 135.7, and he’s drafted in only 66 percent of leagues — meaning in a third of draft rooms he’s sitting there as a free agent. A 23-year-old, 23-minute defenseman with elite luck-rebound and a PP1 case, free or nearly free. One of the biggest values on the board.

Alex Laferriere – LAK – C/LW/RW

Laferriere finished 2025-26 with 21 goals and 23 assists (44 points), almost identical to the year before. On the surface, that reads like a player who’s found his level. The underlying numbers tell a different story. His ice time jumped from 16:32 to 18:19, yet production stayed flat for one reason: with Laferriere on the ice, the Kings shot 8.8 percent and scored 21.3 goals below expected, one of the coldest on-ice environments in the league. His own shooting accounted for 4.8 of those missing goals. That’s not a ceiling. That’s a year of chances that didn’t cash.

The offence should catch up to the chances, and Laferriere already has a peripheral profile that makes him a category stuffer: 209 shots and 255 hits last season. The close of the year showed what the whole package looks like when the luck turns positive: 18 points (8G / 10A), 73 shots and 87 hits in his final 24 games, an 84-game pace of 28 goals, 35 assists, 256 shots and 305 hits. Just an absurd pace.

With ordinary luck, the realistic case is 55-plus points, and the shots and hits are there either way. In banger formats, he’s on my must-draft list.

Jimmy Snuggerud – STL – RW

Last season, there were two Jimmy Snuggeruds: the one from October through February and a completely different player over the final month and a half. Through 47 games, he had 24 points (10G / 14A). Over his last 23 games, he had 27 (11G / 16A), recording a point in 70 percent of those games, pacing out to 40 goals, 58 assists and 256 shots across 84 games. Most impressive, almost none of it came from the power play. One goal, one assist — 93 percent of that production was at 5-on-5.

I’ll be honest about what kind of bet this is. His 5-on-5 shooting ran hot during the surge, and this isn’t a case of hidden luck. It’s a role-and-volume case. The Blues handed him a leading role down the stretch (18:50 per game in March and April). The shot volume is already real, and the shot itself is the best tool in his kit. Rising ice time and shot volume are the two things that most reliably predict a breakout, and he has both, with power-play production as the free upside on top.

I’m not saying 40 goals and 100 points. I’m saying that at an ADP of 133 (26% drafted), Snuggerud might be the cheapest legitimate source of goals on the board. If the 5-on-5 role holds and the power play arrives, he’ll be a household name by April.

Clayton Keller – UTA – LW

This is an unconventional breakout — Keller’s 28, not 23, and he just put up 88 points — but I truly believe there’s another level in 2026-27. He’s coming off a season with 26 goals and 62 assists in 82 games, set a new career-high in SOG and closed out the season with 38 points (10G / 28A) in his final 27 games. That’s a 31-goal, 87-assist (118-point pace).

Will he fully maintain that pace? No, it’s highly unlikely, but it showed what the ceiling could be on a surging Mammoth team. Keller could be the surprise player to put up 100-plus points this year, like Nick Suzuki was last season or J.T. Miller three years ago. What did those two players have in common? 40-plus power-play points, and that’s going to be the avenue for Keller. On top of him finishing 6.2 goals below expected at 5v5, from October through January, Utah’s PP ranked 32nd in the NHL (14.8%), riding a league-worst 13.3 goals scored below expected. When the power-play self-corrected from February until the end of the season, Utah ranked second in the NHL at 30.7 percent. Keller heating up coincided with the power-play finally clicking, and if Utah can operate at a league-average rate this season, Keller could set career highs and make him a major value in the fourth round of fantasy drafts.