Buffalo Sabres’ long-term bet on Dylan Cozens is one worth making

What a birthday present for the Workhorse from Whitehorse.

On Tuesday, the Buffalo Sabres signed Dylan Cozens to an eight-year contract that’s set to kick in next summer. His $7.1 million AAV will make him the third highest-paid forward on the team, sitting behind veteran Jeff Skinner ($9 million) and Tage Thompson, who signed his own $7.142 AAV deal back in August.

What a deal for all parties involved.

The third-year center has quickly emerged into one of the best young forwards in the game today. After recording 51 points in his first two seasons combined – which included a shortened 2020-21 campaign due to COVID-19 – the 21-year-old has exploded with 43 points in 49 games, putting him on a 70-point pace. Only Jack Hughes (109) and Tim Stutzle (93) are projected to get more among U-22 scorers this season, according to Elite Prospects.

We’re starting to see a trend here with the Sabres under GM Kevyn Adams’ leadership. In August, he signed Tage Thompson to a long-term deal worth just over $7 million per season. Adams then signed stay-at-home defender Mattias Samuelsson to a seven-year deal despite having just a handful of games under his belt.

So signing a third player to a long-term deal without a huge, established workload is risky, but one Adams is willing to take. The cost might be high right now, but the payoff could be extraordinarily. He signed his top two centers for around $14 million, which could have been much more had they waited until this summer.

Cozens has been the anchor of the team’s second line, most recently with future stars Jack Quinn and John Jason Peterka. According to Money Puck, that trio has a team-leading expected goal for percentage of 56.1 percent, which is good for ninth out of 26 trios across the league with at least 260 minutes together. Given Cozens is working with two rookies, that’s pretty incredible, and a testament to his value to this young forward group.

According to Natural Stat Trick, Cozens is fourth on the Sabres with a points-per-60 of 2.03 and fifth in shots-per-60 of 8.65 at 5-on-5. He’s near the top in every other category, but also doing a lot of the heavy lifting for his line in the process.

But while Cozens has taken giant strides as a third-year pro, there’s still significant projection here. He’s 21, and it’s hard to say he’s worth the cost right now. Long-term deals to players with a small sample size can be sketchy. But the signs are promising, the Sabres are trending upward, and Adams’ commitment to the team’s future says a lot. There’s a very good chance that had the two sides decided on a bridge deal, Cozens’ value would have skyrocketed shortly after. It’s a nice chunk of change for one of the team’s brightest young stars, and, if it all works out, the Sabres get him until he’s 29.

With Quinn, Peterka, Owen Power and Peyton Krebs currently on entry-level deals, they’ll have a decent chunk of the team’s core for next to nothing next season. Then comes the 2024-25 off-season, when Power, Krebs, Henrik Jokiharju and, most importantly, Rasmus Dahlin become available. Power and Dahlin will be pricey, while the other two will certainly be more reasonable. The team has a projected $24.73 million in cap space for next season with no major contract to sign. And with the cap expected to go up in the coming years, signing Dahlin and Power to expensive deals won’t be too cost-consuming.

And by then, Cozens’ deal could look like an absolute steal.

Cozens keeps showing annual improvements, and that’s all you can ask for. Is $7 million a large chunk of change for a guy that’s pegged to be a second-liner as long as Thompson is playing at the level he is? Absolutely. But it’s not outrageous, either. There’s no reason to believe he can’t hit 80 points once his linemates catch up. And once the Sabres really start to hit the next level, Cozens will be heading toward his prime.

After spending way too long trying to build a competitive roster, the Sabres are finally on the buyer side of the trade market. And with a palpable core, and more notable names coming up the pipeline, Buffalo is setting its sights on some long playoff runs over the next few years. They’re not there yet, and signing Cozens to his new deal isn’t changing that. But it’s always good to see teams make the first move on a beneficial contract well in advance to avoid any distractions.

So, it’s a win-win for all. Cozens gets his money and the Sabres get another crucial player locked down for nearly the rest of the 2020s. There’s still plenty of room to work with to sign guys like Dahlin and Power and bring others in through trade or free agency. Add in a couple of young up-and-comers and the Sabres have the building blocks for a bright future.

Kevin Adams is betting on the future, and he may have played his cards right with this deal.