Hurricanes’ top line is getting chances, not results. What’s wrong?
RALEIGH – Shell shock wouldn’t be the right word.
It’s not as if the Carolina Hurricanes were blown out of their own barn 6-0 in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final. But there had to be somewhat of a hangover for a team that just lost its second hockey game in 50 days. Especially given how that game started.
The Canes appeared to have their hornet’s nest forecheck humming perfectly to start Game 1 at the Lenovo Center Tuesday night. Nikolaj Ehlers struck twice in the opening 12:08, first on a 2-on-1, then on a breakaway, as the Canes repeatedly sprung each other with stretch passes. They tilted the scoring-chance ratio to 10-2 at 5-on-5 in the first period and seemed poised to turn the Vegas Golden Knights into a punching bag.
But that’s not what happened. The Golden Knights have been a dominant team in their own right this postseason, having swept this season’s wire-to-wire alpha franchise, the Colorado Avalanche, in the Western Conference Final. Vegas didn’t flinch under Carolina’s initial assault, pushed back, and turned the game into something we don’t associate with Rod Brind’Amour or John Tortorella hockey: a track meet.
Vegas won 5-4 on contributions from all over the lineup, from the first line (Ivan Barbashev) to the second line (Brett Howden, William Karlsson) to the third line (Tomas Hertl with the game winner). The Canes got three goals from their third line, with Jordan Staal tallying on top of Ehlers, but the contributions didn’t come from up and down the lineup in Game 1.
We can forgive the second line of Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven, and Jackson Blake for being held off the scoresheet, given they’ve been Carolina’s best offensive trio all postseason. But the absence of the Canes’ top line of Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, and Seth Jarvis becomes more conspicuous by the day.
It’s not that they’ve had no moments this postseason. Svechnikov delivered the overtime winner in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Final vs. the Montreal Canadiens; Jarvis picked up five points in five games against the Habs; and Aho finished off a Round 1 sweep of the Ottawa Senators with two goals, including the winner, in Game 4.
Nevertheless, Carolina’s supposed top forwards are barely producing half a point per game apiece so far this postseason. They’ve been outscored 4-2 at 5-on-5 while on the ice simultaneously; while Carolina holds a 79-57 scoring-chance share with that trio out there, Svechnikov-Aho-Jarvis have uncharacteristically bled high-danger chances, to the point the expected goal share tilts to 45.47 percent for Carolina’s opponents when they’re on the ice.
In the regular season, the line’s mark was 56.21 percent. They’re used to facing difficult matchups, of course, but so are all top lines in the NHL, and Vegas held them to a 39.32-percent expected goal share in Game 1. It’s not that they generated no danger – Seth Jarvis was robbed by a Carter Hart glove save on what could’ve been a late tying goal in the third period – but the results haven’t been there.
While Vegas gets repeated lifts from its top players, with Mitch Marner arguably in the Conn Smythe Trophy driver’s seat, the Canes must find a way to spark Svechnikov, Aho and Jarvis, whether that means keeping them together or splitting them up.
So what’s the solution in Brind’Amour’s mind?
“They’ve got to play in the other team’s end,” he said Wednesday during Carolina’s off-day media availability at Lenovo Center. “They’re too much one-and-done, not even one a lot of times, so they’ve got to get a lot more offensive zone time, kind of like that last shift they had. That was a shift you could say, ‘OK, there you go.’ That’s how it should look.’ We need them to get going.”
For Aho, it’s a matter of trusting his daily preparation routine, not forcing the issue, and believing the goals will come.
“When it goes your way, it’s never easy, but maybe easier,” Aho said. “[When slumping] we almost sometimes try to do too much instead of just letting the game happen and play the game, let the game come to you in a way. “I think it’s just, go out there tomorrow with the highest confidence possible, just play the game, trust it’ll happen, and you’ve got to be a little bit smarter.”
“Those guys are great players, and they had their chances and their looks last night,” Hall said. “Some of the looks didn’t turn into chances, but we know how good they are, and we know how good they can be, and it’s only a matter of time. This league is weird. You grip your stick a little tight, and you get into a weird matchup, and it can look worse than it is, but things can change on a dime, especially this time of year.”
Zoom in, and the Canes’ top line simply has to be much better. Zoom out, and Game 1 was a back-and-forth affair that was almost rescued by the top line. As Brind’Amour put it on Wednesday, Jarvis’ chance was similar to the one Tomas Hertl converted minutes earlier for the winner. The game could’ve gone either way, and Brind’Amour sees plenty of reasons not to panic.
“I think we’re calm because we know we can be better,” he said. “If we had played our best game and it was that outcome, I think it’d be a different feel. But we knew it was kind of similar to the last series. I think we got started with a lot of areas we didn’t like in our game, and you’re just not going to win when you don’t play to your abilities. And you’ve got to give the other team a lot of credit. They’re making you not play that way. It’s not just happening. We’re trying. But we do have to be sharper in a lot of areas. I think that’s the positive – we definitely have room to get better.”
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