Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Rangers: Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick
Carolina Hurricanes: 1st Metropolitan Division, defeated Boston 4-3 in first round.
New York Rangers: 2nd Metropolitan Division, defeated Pittsburgh 4-3 in first round.
Schedule (ET)
Wednesday, May 18, 7 p.m.: NY Rangers at Carolina (ESPN, SNE, SNO, SNP, TVA Sports)
Friday, May 20, 8 p.m.: NY Rangers at Carolina (ESPN, SNE, SNO, SNP, TVA Sports)
Sunday, May 22, 3:30 p.m.: Carolina at NY Rangers (ESPN, Sportsnet, SN360, TVA Sports)
Tuesday, May 24, 7 p.m.: Carolina at NY Rangers (ESPN, SNE, SNO, SNP, TVA Sports)
*Thursday, May 26, TBD: NY Rangers at Carolina (TBD)
*Saturday, May 28, TBD: Carolina at NY Rangers (TBD)
*Monday, May 30, TBD: NY Rangers at Carolina (TBD)
The Skinny
The last (and only other) time the Hurricanes and Rangers have met in the postseason, the expectations of the series were much different. When they faced each other in the play-in round in the bubble in 2020, the Hurricanes had finished sixth in the conference and were looking to make a deep run, while the Rangers had finished 11th and in a normal season would have missed the playoffs, so they were just happy to be there. It wasn’t close, as the Hurricanes swept the Rangers quite handily, and the Rangers found themselves leaving Toronto that summer just four days after the postseason started.
This time, it’s definitely closer. The Hurricanes have been a dominant force again this season, but the Rangers took a big step forward this season, partly thanks to goaltender Igor Shesterkin. The Canes finally exorcised their demons with the Boston Bruins, who eliminated them in 2019 and 2020, and are now ready to make a deep run this year, especially with the weaker of the two Eastern Conference matchups. That said, the Rangers have all sorts of momentum right now, coming off a comeback series win. The Canes certainly have more experience as a group, but the Rangers still have some experienced pieces from their runs in the early 2010s. Can the Canes continue a bid for their first Cup final appearance since 2006, or will the Rangers make another upset?
Head to Head
Carolina: 3-1-0
NY Rangers: 1-3-0
The Hurricanes had the advantage in the regular season, which proved to be very important considering how close the teams finished to each other in the standings. The first win was a bit of a blowout, as the Canes got to a 5-1 lead before the Rangers made it close in garbage time, with the final score being 6-3. The Rangers’ lone win saw the Canes outshoot them 44-18, but their goaltending bailed them out to win 2-0 – except it was Alexandar Georgiev in net, not Shesterkin. The final two wins for the Canes came in April, and both were closer games with 4-2 and 4-3 scores, but they saw the Canes take a 3-1 and 4-1 leads, respectively, with the Rangers trying to make late comebacks in those games as well.
Top Five Scorers (through Round 1)
Carolina
Jaccob Slavin: 8 points
Tony DeAngelo: 8 points
Vincent Trocheck: 7 points
Teuvo Teravainen: 7 points
Seth Jarvis/Max Domi/Sebastian Aho: 5 points
NY Rangers
Mika Zibanejad: 11 points
Adam Fox: 10 points
Chris Kreider: 7 points
Andrew Copp: 7 points
Artemi Panarin: 7 points
X-Factor
Every year, there’s a team that seems to defy its underlying numbers and get a lot of luck along the way on a decent run. This year, the Rangers are that team, or at least they were for most of the season. Until the trade deadline, the Rangers had the fourth-worst 5-on-5 shot attempt share with 45.44 percent and the seventh-worst 5-on-5 expected goals share with 46.37 percent, mostly coasting off the Vezina-caliber season Shesterkin was having and the play of Panarin, Zibanejad, Kreider, and Fox up front. But after bringing in Copp, Justin Braun, Frank Vatrano, and Tyler Motte to shore up the depth that was causing most of those problems, they found themselves seventh in 5-on-5 shot attempt share with 53.71 percent and ninth in 5-on-5 expected goals share with 51.94 percent, a significant improvement.
That wasn’t the case in the playoffs though. They went to their old ways of relying on Shesterkin and the big four while getting crushed by the Penguins possession-wise, with a 46.14 percent 5-on-5 shot attempt share and a 36.53 percent 5-on-5 expected goals share. Even if you think numbers aren’t everything, those aren’t numbers that will give you much success in the long run, and they almost cost the Blueshirts against the Penguins considering the comeback they had to make to win the series. It was evident how important Shesterkin was to bail them out, because when he faltered, the team usually lost. They’re going up against a Canes team that finished third in shot attempt shares and fifth in expected goals shares at even strength this season, so that’s probably not going to fly much longer. If the Rangers can get back to playing as the team how they were post-trade deadline, and not rely on Shesterkin as much, they’ll have a much better chance of winning this series. It’s hard to see them pulling it off otherwise.
Offense
The Hurricanes’ offense has always been a unique one, particularly with how it’s more impactful on its defense than its offense. They aren’t full of finishing talent like a lot of offensive teams are, but what they are full of is depth that will overwhelm you in the offensive zone, regardless of who is on the ice. That’s not to say that they don’t have elite talent that can finish – they have their fair share of that with players like Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. But, when your fourth line has Domi, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Derek Stepan, players who have held top-six roles on their previous teams in the past, that has its own advantage.
The Rangers find themselves on the other side of the coin, with several star players that can carry the load but not as much depth as the Canes. They’ve certainly addressed the depth at the trade deadline, but it’s still their star players like Panarin, Zibanejad, and Kreider that carry the load. The further down the lineup you go, once you get to players like Kevin Rooney and Ryan Reaves, it becomes a little bit easier to beat, especially for a high-flying team like the Canes.
That said, both types of lineups worked for their respective teams in the first round. It was the Canes depth that proved the difference against a star-studded Boston Bruins team, while it was the stars of the Rangers that won out over a deeper Penguins team (although shooting on a third-string goalie for six of the seven games certainly helps). It’ll be interesting to see which of these styles eventually breaks.
Defense
Part of what really makes the Hurricanes offense work as well as it does is the defense, and vice versa. The Canes are good at offense because they defend efficiently and get the puck up the ice consistently, and the Canes are good at defense because they spend their time in the offensive zone more than the defensive zone. They balance it well in their defense pairs as well, pairing offense-first defenders like DeAngelo and Brady Skjei with strong defenders like Slavin and Brett Pesce. That said, the D-men were the leaders offensively against the Bruins, with DeAngelo and Slavin pacing the team in scoring.
The Rangers blueline is very similar to its forward group, in that it has the best defenseman in this series in Adam Fox, but the depth surrounding him isn’t quite at the Canes’ level. Jacob Trouba is still a good defenseman but not quite the high-end player he was in Winnipeg, and while the Rangers certainly have youthful pieces to build around for the future in Ryan Lindgren, K’Andre Miller, and Braden Schneider, none of them significantly moves the needle just yet. Because of this, the Rangers tend to bleed scoring chances, making life very tough for Shesterkin in the crease, but he’s bailed them out on many occasions.
Goaltending
I’ve alluded to Shesterkin many times when talking about the Rangers’ success this season, and he has easily played the biggest part in it. There’s a reason why most people have assumed that he’s already won the Vezina Trophy and why he’s a Hart Trophy finalist, and it’s because, despite the players in front of him consistently getting overwhelmed in their own zone, he keeps them in a lot of games they shouldn’t be in. He finished the year with a .935 save percentage, the second highest single-season save percentage in the salary cap era among goalies with at least 50 games played, and higher than Carey Price’s .933 in his Hart trophy winning season, and on an arguably worse team. That said, Shesterkin’s biggest slight is his lack of playoff experience, and he hasn’t been as strong in the postseason so far this year, with just a .910 SV% in the first series, and he was pulled twice in Games 3 and 4. Regardless, he’s still going to be tough to beat enough times for four wins, unless he’s significantly overwhelmed – which the Canes are capable of doing.
The Hurricanes’ goaltending is in a bit of a flux at the moment, mostly due to the status of starting goalie Frederik Andersen. If Andersen is in net and plays to the level he did in the regular season, he might be one of the few goalies who can hold their own against Shesterkin. He tied for third among goalies this season in SV% with a .922, a career high for him, and arguably should have gotten more consideration for the Vezina trophy. That said, Leafs fans will warn you about ‘Playoff Fred,’ as his performance dips a little bit come playoff time. He has a career .916 playoff save percentage, so he’s not terrible in the postseason, but he has a habit of allowing goals at the worst time, and was a big reason for their poor Game 7 performances.
If Andersen isn’t back, Antti Raanta has proven to be a solid option so far in the playoffs, with a .927 SV% in six games in the series against Boston, missing some of Game 2 and all of Game 3 due to an injury. Many weren’t expecting the Canes to beat Boston without Andersen, but Raanta proved them wrong and should be more than capable of playing well in this series as well, especially when you consider the teams in front of them.
Injuries
The biggest injury concern between both teams at this moment is Andersen, who seems likely to return this series but hasn’t been confirmed yet. Aside from that, both teams are missing a depth player, as Jordan Martinook for the Canes and Barclay Goodrow for the Rangers are day-to-day after injuries they sustained early in the first round.
Intangibles
One underrated storyline going into this series is all the familiar faces returning. Raanta, DeAngelo, Skjei, Derek Stepan, Jesper Fast, and Brendan Smith are all former Rangers, with DeAngelo likely feeling the most slighted for his (much deserved) departure from New York. On the Rangers side, it’s not quite as populated, with only Julien Gauthier and Greg McKegg being former Canes on the roster and neither of them playing a game in the first round. But it still makes for an interesting factor to look out for, especially since we’ve seen how chaotic DeAngelo can be in this postseason.
Other than that, both have their share of demons to still overcome. The Hurricanes are still looking to make a deep run where they aren’t an easy out and are carrying the momentum of a big win over a Bruins team that’s beat them before, while the Rangers are a young team looking to continue proving people wrong and coming off the momentum of a comeback win against the Penguins. Neither team will be looking to back down easily.
CONSENSUS SERIES PREDICTION
We expect a nailbiter of a series. The Canes are the more structured group, but the Rangers showed in Round 1 that their star power can overcome their deficiencies. Rangers in 7.