Checking in on The Nuge and Gabriel Landeskog

Statistics current as of games completed Monday, October 24

Whether or not you are in a Keeper League, recently drafted rookies are a key part of the fantasy hockey experience.  Last season, 2010 draftees Taylor Hall, Jeff Skinner, Cam Fowler, and to a lesser extent Tyler Seguin, all played important roles in the fantasy hockey season.  The two big guns to look at this year are Ryan Nugent-Hopkins of the Edmonton Oilers and Gabriel Landeskog of the Colorado Avalanche.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

“The Nuge” took the hockey world by storm early in his career, recording a hat trick in only his third game. While there are plenty of reasons to be excited in Oil Country, there are also some red flags regarding RNH’s production.  He is currently putting the puck in at a 29.4% clip, a completely unsustainable pace. He is also losing 73.8% of his draws, which makes it difficult to sustain long-term success.

Now to the good news.  His QUALCOMP (a number that indicates the quality of the competition he has faced) is -0.139, which means he has lined up against the weaker lines on opposing teams.  This will probably continue as coach Tom Renney should want to keep the pressure off his Kid Line of Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall, and Jordan Eberle.  Weaker competition of course means more shots and more scoring chances.

Adding up the positives and negatives, we can’t expect this torrid goal-scoring pace to continue, but as long as he stays in the NHL, The Nuge should be a safe bet for 60 points, with a very long shot at 70.

Gabriel Landeskog

From a statistical standpoint, Landeskog has been even more impressive than Nugent-Hopkins.  While he has put up fewer points, he has lined up against tougher competition (QUALCOMP of 0.045), with much weaker linemates (QUALTEAM of -0.391), more often that not in his own zone (35.7% Ozone%).  There is a big difference between lining up with a fellow first overall pick and a Canadian World Junior hero than a couple of guys who both have NHL single-season career highs of 26 points (Ryan O’Reilly and Daniel Winnik).  Expect more from Landeskog as he gets the minutes he deserves and plays with top six teammates.

While these two are not the only 2011 draftees in the NHL, they are the two that are fantasy-relevant.  Sean Couturier is expected to play a more defensive role in Philadelphia, Adam Larsson of the Devils still hasn’t recorded a point, and the Senators Mika Zibanejad may still be sent back to the Swedish Elite League along with his single point.