Could Oilers’ Connor McDavid really crack the 200-point mark?

There have been only four instances of an NHLer registering 200 points in a season.

Unsurprisingly, Wayne Gretzky can lay claim to all of them, dating back to his pure dominance with the Edmonton Oilers in the 1980s. Mario Lemieux had 199 points in 1988-89, marking the closest anyone else has come to joining the club.

Nobody has approached numbers like those during the salary-cap era. Only one player has managed to break through the 150-point barrier since 2004-05, with Connor McDavid putting up 153 with the Oilers in 2022-23. Unsurprisingly, McDavid has two of the other best attempts since then, with 138 points last year and 132 in 2023-24.

But something special is brewing early this year. With 26 points in nine games, McDavid is on track for 243 points – a number so high that even Gretzky never came close to sniffing it. We’re talking about a small sample size here, and the number will definitely come down over the course of the season.

Is McDavid thinking about the numbers? If he is, he’s not letting anyone know.

“I think I care more about how the game looks overall and how it feels out there,” Connor McDavid recently told the media. “It’s been good at times, and there’s been times where I feel I can do more, and everyone can do more, so that’s more important.”

What’s different this year? With Zach Hyman out to start the year, McDavid got comfortable with Vasily Podkolzin and Leon Draisaitl. The Oilers have typically liked to split 97/29, but the pair have been utterly insane together. Podkolzin, meanwhile, is on track for the best season of his career by far, while Evan Bouchard has been averaging two points a game, as well. Any time McDavid is on the ice, something good happens.

So, is 200 points a realistic goal?

Well… it’ll be a stretch. McDavid is clearly flying high right now, but a pair of five-point games, and even a four-pointer, have really boosted his numbers. The Oilers are a hot team right now, and McDavid seems to be thriving under new coach Mike Babcock. But with a point-per-game pace of just under 3.00, it’s highly, highly unlikely McDavid will be able to keep that pace down the stretch.

A longer 84-game season will give McDavid a bit of extra leeway to make it happen. But it’s not like we’re talking about a double-digit game increase with a player who usually would miss out by about four to five points.

McDavid produced at a 1.68 point-per-game average a year ago. If he fell to that rate the rest of the way, we’re looking at a 151-point full-season pace, even with the two extra games. McDavid is currently producing at a rate of 2.89 PPG – he needs to average about 2.40 points per game the rest of the way to hit 200. There’s some wiggle room, but that would still be one of the best PPG averages ever seen if he pulls it off.

The Oilers are averaging a league-leading 4.63 goals-per-game, with a few wild performances skewing the numbers a bit. Most teams are averaging just more than three goals a game, with the league average sitting at 3.07. When Gretzky was torching goalies, the mark was as low as 3.67 and as high as 4.01 – it’s a different game now. Goalies have gotten better, defenders have gotten quicker and open ice has become increasingly harder to come by. There’s a very, very good chance we’ll never see a player reach the 200-point barrier again.

But if anyone could pull it off, it’s McJesus.

The eras are obviously so much different. If we take the 2026-27 projected point totals out of the equation, Howie Morenz’s 1927-28 points production translates to 190 points based off Hockey Reference’s adjusted points model. Wayne Gretzky’s 1985-86 season would translate to 170, with McDavid’s 158-point pace in 2020-21 being the best of the 21st century.

Here’s the thing: McDavid has typically been a second-half performer. Historically, he has a 1.67 PPG average in March and a 1.65 in April. Over the course of his career, he has 346 points in 208 games in just those two months. He has 235 goals and 690 points in 467 games from October to January (1.48 PPG), and 165 goals and 522 points in 327 games from February to April (1.60 PPG). The latter-half sample size is shorter, but his ability to stay hot down the stretch is why he’s been so lethal.

You don’t need advanced analytics to know McDavid is an otherworldly beast. McDavid is a six-time Art Ross Trophy winner, and barring an injury, is well on his way to winning No. 7. But he’ll tell anyone who’ll listen that he doesn’t care about personal accolades. All he wants is a Stanley Cup, something he came so close to achieving in 2024 and 2025.

Regardless of what number McDavid’s at in April, it’s been an absolute blast watching an all-time great do what he does best. Everybody should be wanting McDavid to chase modern-day records. It’s good for the sport. And it’s not like he’s pummeling weak competition. Shift after shift, he’s deployed against a team’s top defenders and still manages to come out on top. He drives the play on the ice and is known for being a strong leader off the ice. It’s hard not to love his fiery passion for the game and appreciate the puck dominance he’s capable of.

OK, maybe goalies wouldn’t mind McDavid having an off-night or two.

Best NHL Starts (10 GP) Since 2005-06

Rank	Player	Season	Team	Points	PPG Pace	Final Result (Min. 42 GP)
1	Leon Draisaitl	2021–22	Edmonton Oilers	23 (10G, 13A)	2.30	110 points in 80 GP
2	Connor McDavid	2021–22	Edmonton Oilers	22 (8G, 14A)	2.20	123 points in 80 GP
2	Connor McDavid	2022–23	Edmonton Oilers	22 (11G, 11A)	2.20	153 points in 82 GP
4	Steven Stamkos	2017–18	Tampa Bay Lightning	21 (3G, 18A)	2.10	86 points in 78 GP
4	Leon Draisaitl	2022–23	Edmonton Oilers	21 (5G, 16A)	2.10	128 points in 80 GP
6	Jack Hughes	2023–24	New Jersey Devils	20 (5G, 15A)	2.00	74 points in 62 GP

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