Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — April 1st
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, and three punt options for defensemen. These largely revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings.
A new addition is the “honourable mention forwards,” taking a look at some low-owned plays that expectations should be tempered with. Still, they bring some level of value in the form of a strong projection tonight, or good past production against their opponents.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
FULL DFO Daily Projections
Jordan Eberle (W, SEA2, PP1) – @ SJS – (DK-$4,300 / FD $5,600)
DFO Projection: DK-11.5 / FD-15.1
Jordan Eberle’s been popping in the charts lately and is doing so again tonight in a great matchup for him and his linemates on SEA2. In fact, alongside Jaden Schwartz and Shane Wright, he might be my favourite play of the slate.
Eberle is popping value-wise, while Schwartz has 0.6 goals per hour on 1.2 expected goals per hour over his last 25 games, while Wright is min priced on both sites. The best part? They’re projecting for around four percent ownership as a line, the 20th highest on the slate, with a near perfect matchup score.
Sidney Crosby (C, PIT1, PP1) – @ NYR – ($8,100 / $8,500)
DFO Projection: DK-10.4 / FD-8.6
Call me crazy, but I love PIT1 in this spot. While Igor Shesterkin gets the start, he’s allowed three or more goals in three of his last four starts, and the Rangers as a whole are coming off a crazy game against the Coyotes Saturday night. Couple that with the fact they play the Devils in what’s always a highly emotional affair, and we might get PIT1 in a great spot at around one percent ownership.
I don’t need to tell you how good Sidney Crosby still is, but he, Bryan Rust and Drew O’Connor are the second most potent offensive line on the slate behind EDM1.
Sean Walker (D, COL-3) – @ CBJ – ($3,500 / $4,3600)
DFO Projection: DK-8.8 / FD-11.1
Walker has been a blast since joining the Avalanche and is popping as a low-owned play tonight, with great shot volume, block volume, and goal-scoring volume over his last 25 games.
Mattias Ekholm (D, EDM-1, PP2) – vs. STL – ($4,200 / $5,500)
DFO Projection: DK-9.7 / FD-12.8
I’ve been playing a ton of Mattias Ekholm lately, so of course I didn’t get him into any showdown lineups Saturday against the Ducks, and it cost me big time. I won’t make that mistake again, as he’s going to continue to be a near lock in my lineups.
In his last nine games, he has four goals and 13 points, including two two-point games, and two three-point games. Over his last 25, he’s scoring at a 2.4 points per hour rate with 6.9 shots on goal per hour (nice).
Oh, and he’s projecting for under five percent ownership tonight.
Honourable mention forwards
- Alexis Lafreniere (W, NYR2, PP2) ($4,600/$5,600): DK-10.1 / FD-13.2
- Alexander Nylander (W, CBJ1, PP1) ($5,100/$5,300): DK-11.2 / FD-14.2
- Brayden Point (C, TBL1) ($7,800/ $9,200): DK-13.7 / FD-17.9
Top Punt Defensemen
- Vince Dunn, SEA-1 ($4,800/$6,400): DK-11.7 / FD-15.9
- Nick Seeler, PHI-2 ($3,900/ $4,000): DK-9.0 / FD-11.5
- Marc-Edouard Vlasic, SJS-3 ($3,300/$4,300): DK-7.5 / FD-9.5
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.