Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays – February 21st
This value sheet includes salaries, and projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as three punt options for defensemen. These largely predicate around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots, and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus’ on DraftKings.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
FULL DFO Daily Projections
Connor McDavid (C, EDM) – vs BOS – (DK-$9,800 / FD $10,000)
DFO Projection: DK-16.0 / FD-17.7
Connor McDavid a value play? Call me crazy, but yes — I think one of the most expensive players on the slate is a value play. McDavid’s 4.8 points per hour are the most of any regular forward on the slate, bringing with a 1.3 goals per hour rate that’s 0.3 below his expected. He’s had success against Boston in the past, with points in nine of 11 games, and multi-point games in six of them.
And despite having one of the highest projections on the slate, McDavid is projecting for around five percent ownership tonight, standing out amongst the crowd of expensive players.
Johnny Gaudreau (W, CBJ) – @ ANA – ($4,500 / $5.100)
DFO Projection: DK- / FD-11.6
What a weird couple of seasons its been for Johnny Gaudreau in Columbus. He’s seen significant regression in his game, especially this season, but after a tough October and November, he’s putting it together. Over his last 25 games, he’s scored three goals and 22 points for a solid 2.8 points per hour. He and the Blue Jackets’ top line have a great matchup tonight against the Anaheim Ducks, and he offers some salary relief on both sites despite projecting to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Connor Clifton (D, BUF) – @ MTL – ($2,900 / $3,600)
DFO Projection: DK-6.4 / FD-8.1
Connor Clifton is a player who has been popping in the charts for a bit now, in thanks to a low salary, and strong shot and block volume. He gets minutes on the Buffalo Sabres’ second pairing, and while he doesn’t bring much in terms of true point production, he often pays off with his peripheral production.
Nick Seeler (D, PHI) – @ CHI – ($3,900 / $4,200)
DFO Projection: DK-7.9 / FD-9.7
In terms of locking in value, is there a better defenceman than Nick Seeler as of late? His 12.8 blocks per hour are a stunning 3.4 more than any other defenceman over the last 25 games, while he’s added some solid shot volume, too. Coming off a double bonus game against the New Jersey Devils on Saturday night, Seeler looks like a great low owned play tonight.
Top Punt Defensemen
- Egor Zamula, PHI ($2,600/$3,700): DK-7.1 / FD-9.7
- Arber Xhekaj, MTL ($2,600/$3,700): DK-6.6 / FD-8.3
- Jackson Lacombe, ANA ($2,800/$3,600): DK-6.2 / FD-7.9
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.