Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays – February 28th
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, and three punt options for defensemen. These largely predicate around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots, and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus’ on DraftKings.
A new addition is the “honourable mention forwards,” taking a look at some low-owned plays that expectations should be tempered with. Still, they bring some level of value in the form of a strong projection tonight, or good past production against their opponents.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
FULL DFO Daily Projections
Connor McDavid (C, EDM) – vs STL – (DK-$9,900 / FD $10,100)
DFO Projection: DK-16.3 / FD-22.5
It’s not often the most expensive player on the slate is also the best value player on the slate, but here we are. Connor McDavid, struggling through a 10-game goal drought in which he’s racked up 23 assists, is projecting for the most points among any forward on the slate. Despite that, he’s carrying the seventh-highest ownership among forwards. Feel free to jam him in.
Kaapo Kakko (W, NYR) – vs. CBJ – ($2,900 / $3,600)
DFO Projection: DK-6.4 / FD-8.4
If you’re jamming in McDavid, Kakko is a player popping in projections playing on the Rangers’ top-line. DFO has him projecting to 2x his salary, and that’s nothing to scoff at. He is projecting for nearly 25 percent ownership, so buyer beware.
Colton Parayko (D, STL) – @ EDM – ($5,100 / $5,400)
DFO Projection: DK-8.5 / FD-10.7
Parayko isn’t exactly cheap, but he packs tons of value at next to no ownership. He’s carrying under five percent, and has excellent shot and block volume, making this a great pivot play tonight.
Jake Bean (D, CBJ) – @ NYR – ($2,600 / $3,700)
DFO Projection: DK-5.2 / FD-6.5
While I was initially going to put Cody Ceci here, instead of in the punt defencemen section, I opted to go with Bean instead. He has much stronger shot and block volume over his past 25 games, with the same points per hour rate over that stretch as Ceci. Both are the only defencemen projecting to 2x their salary on DraftKings.
Top Punt Defensemen
- Cody Ceci, EDM ($2,2900/$4,100): DK-6.1 / FD-7.6
- Nick Leddy, STL ($3,200/$3,600): DK-5.8 / FD-6.9
- Braden Schneider, NYR ($2,700/$3,600): DK-6.0 / FD-6.4
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.