Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays – March 11th
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, and three punt options for defensemen. These largely revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings.
A new addition is the “honourable mention forwards,” taking a look at some low-owned plays that expectations should be tempered with. Still, they bring some level of value in the form of a strong projection tonight, or good past production against their opponents.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
FULL DFO Daily Projections
Timo Meier (W, NJD) – @ NYR – (DK-$5,200 / FD $6,000)
DFO Projection: DK-14.4 / FD-15.8
I hope you like the taste of chalk, because we’re eating it all up with Timo Meier tonight. Projected for roughly 25 percent ownership, everyone is on Meier, but so will I. It feels like for the first time since he arrived in New Jersey, the Timo Meier of old has arrived.
In his last eight games, he’s got eight goals — including a hat-trick — 12 points and 29 shots on goal. He’s worth it in a good matchup against the Rangers.
Trent Frederic (W, BOS) – vs. STL – ($3,200 / $4,900)
DFO Projection: DK-8.4 / FD-11.2
Meier pops as the top forward value play, while Frederic is the fifth highest. On top of that, he’s projecting for only around five percent ownership, a third less than other top value plays around him. He and his linemates on BOS3 have a great matchup against the Blues, and Frederic has scored 2.3 points per hour over his las 25 games.
Matt Roy (D, LAK) – vs. NYI – ($4,300 / $4,900)
DFO Projection: DK-8.9 / FD-11.4
Matt Roy is looking like an excellent play tonight in the highest-paced game on the slate. He has good shot volume, and blocks a ton of shots, while chipping in a bit of offence here or there. At around seven percent ownership, Roy is smash play tonight.
Ryan Pulock (D, NYI) – @ LAK – ($4,700 / $4,900)
DFO Projection: DK-8.4 / FD-10.6
For all these reasons, Roy is a solid play, and so is Pulock on the other side of the rink. Pulock has higher shot and block volume, but comes
Honourable mention forwards
- Quinton Byfield (W, LAK) ($4,900/$5,800): DK-10.0 / FD-15.1
- Adam Lowry (C, WPG) ($3,400/$4,100): DK-8.1 / FD-10.9
- Nikolaj Ehlers (W, WPG) ($5,100/$6,200): DK-9.7 / FD-12.8
Top Punt Defensemen
- Braden Schneider, NYR ($2,900/$3,600): DK-6.8 / FD-8.7
- Vladislav Gavrikov, LAK ($3,100/$4,000): DK-6.8 / FD-9.8
- Dylan Samberg, WPG ($2,700/$3,600): DK-5.9 / FD-7.8
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.