Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays – March 19th
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, and three punt options for defensemen. These largely revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings.
A new addition is the “honourable mention forwards,” taking a look at some low-owned plays that expectations should be tempered with. Still, they bring some level of value in the form of a strong projection tonight, or good past production against their opponents.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
FULL DFO Daily Projections
Kirill Kaprizov (W, MIN) – @ ANA – (DK-$9,100 / FD $9,800)
DFO Projection: DK-20.3 / FD-27.2
I don’t think I’ve seen a single player with as high of a value projection as Kaprizov has tonight. He appears ready to absolutely smash against the lowly Anaheim Ducks, and is projected to be the ninth-highest owned forward at around 10 percent. Feel free to go above that ownership in any of your multi-entry contests, as he and the Wild power play are in a smash spot.
Dmitri Voronkov (C, CBJ) – @ DET – ($3,900 / $4,600)
DFO Projection: DK-9.2 / FD-11.5
Voronkov is on a tear as of late, scoring a staggering 1.8 goals per hour, while still posting a 2.0 individual expected goals per hour over his last 25 games. That’s a 326 minute sample size, showing just how real his goal scoring is right now. He couples it with 12.1 shots per hour, and surprisingly high block volume for a forward. Considering his price point, his projected ownership of only one percent, and a tremendous matchup against the Red Wings, this is a great spot for him.
Zach Werenski (D, CBJ) – @ DET – ($6,600 / $7,200)
DFO Projection: DK-12.1 / FD-15.5
Werenski is going to be chalky, so be ready to mix in some honourable mention forwards and defencemen, but he’s worth it. He’s racking up points as of late, and has excellent shot volume in a great matchup tonight.
Marc-Edouard Vlasic (D, SJS) – @ NSH – ($3,700 / $4,600)
DFO Projection: DK-8.3 / FD-10.3
I can’t quit ya, pickles. He has been a great value play for a while in thanks to great shot and block volume, and looks to be so again tonight. In one of this slates highest pace games, he looks to be a great play at less than one percent ownership.
Honourable mention forwards
- Jake DeBrusk (W, BOS2) ($4,400/$5,000): DK-9.8 / FD-12.5
- Viktor Arvidsson (W, LAK4) ($6,000/$4,000): DK-11.2 / FD-14.8
- Pavel Zacha (C, BOS1) ($4,700/$5,900): DK-9.7 / FD-13.0
In the case of Arvidsson, he may not play tonight and if he does, I’d be cautious playing him on DraftKings, but feel much more comfortable on FanDuel due to the salary discrepancy. Still, he looks to be on LAK4, who project for among the lowest TOI of any line tonight. If he’s up higher in the lineup, he becomes a stronger play.
Top Punt Defensemen
- Marc Del Gaizo, NSH ($2,500/ N/A): DK-6.3 / FD- N/A
- Sean Walker, COL ($3,500/$4,400): DK-7.7 / FD-9.8
- Arber Xhekaj, MTL ($3,100/$3,800): DK-6.8 / FD-8.3
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.