Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays – March 20th
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, and three punt options for defensemen. These largely revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings.
A new addition is the “honourable mention forwards,” taking a look at some low-owned plays that expectations should be tempered with. Still, they bring some level of value in the form of a strong projection tonight, or good past production against their opponents.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
FULL DFO Daily Projections
Wyatt Johnston (C, DAL3) – vs. ARI – (DK-$5,700 / FD $7,000)
DFO Projection: DK-12.6 / FD-16.5
Wyatt Johnston and DAL3 all look to be in a great spot tonight taking on the Arizona Coyotes. Johnston is leading that charge, in thanks to great shot volume, and excellent point production. He’ll be highly owned around 20 percent, but we have some other nice pivot spots to help bring down your collective ownership.
Dylan Strome (C, WSH2) – vs. TOR – ($5,600 / $6,500)
DFO Projection: DK-10 / FD-13.5
One spot you can do that is by playing some Dylan Strome and WSH2. He’s projecting for under 10 percent ownership, and looks to be overlooked on this slate. He gets top unit power play time, and has racked up an impressive 3.7 points per hour over his last 25 games.
Thomas Harley (D, DAL-1) – vs. ARI – ($5,400 / 6,300)
DFO Projection: DK-10.1 / FD-13.2
Harley is a great fit in those DAL3 stacks, and he is coming in around 13 percent ownership — roughly eight lower than his defensive partner, Miro Heiskanen. Yet, Harley has scored more goals as of late and generated more scoring chances, so this is a good little pivot spot. You’re giving up the top power play minutes, but Harley is making the most of his opportunities.
Vladislav Gavrikov (D, LAK-2) – vs. MIN – ($3,200 / $4,100)
DFO Projection: DK-6.2 / FD-7.8
While his individual numbers haven’t popped as of late, he’s popping in the DFO charts tonight against the Minnesota Wild with a strong projection. He has some decent shot volume, but there’s some risk here for sure, even though it won’t take much to pay off his low salary and ownership.
Honourable mention forwards
- Sonny Milano (W, WSH3) ($2,700/$4,200): DK-6.6 / FD-8.9
- Nicholas Robertson (W, TOR3) ($2,700/$3,600): DK-6.0 / FD-7.9
- Logan Stankoven (W, DAL3) ($5,200/$5,000): DK-9.7 / FD-12.8
Top Punt Defensemen
- Timothy Liljegren, TOR-3, PP1 ($3,700/ $5,000): DK-6.7 / FD- 8.8
- Mikey Anderson, LAK-1 ($3,300/$3,700): DK-5.5 / FD-6.9
- Declan Chisholm, MIN-3, PP1 ($3,100/$3,800): DK-5.7 / FD-7.2
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.