Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays – March 25th
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, and three punt options for defensemen. These largely revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings.
A new addition is the “honourable mention forwards,” taking a look at some low-owned plays that expectations should be tempered with. Still, they bring some level of value in the form of a strong projection tonight, or good past production against their opponents.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
FULL DFO Daily Projections
William Karlsson (C, VGK3, PP2) – @ STL – (DK-$5,300 / FD $6,600)
DFO Projection: DK-9.1 / FD-11.6
Daily Faceoff is projecting for a different set of lines than many other resource sites, and that’s because the Golden Knights went to these lines last game and were dominant. VGK3 were dominant, as were they all, and Karlsson is popping in the projections charts because of it. Even beyond that, over his last 25 games, Karlsson has 1.5 goals per hour, 1.2 goals per hour, 2.3 points per hour and 9.3 shots per hour. On top of that, he’s projecting for a lot less ownership than their top six players, so this is a great “get different” spot.
Trevor Moore (W, LAK2, PP2) – @ VAN – ($5,600 / $7,200)
DFO Projection: DK-8.5 / FD-10.9
A lot of chalk is heading towards that Golden Knights/Blues game on both sides, and while Moore is still projecting for just under 20 percent ownership, it’s still 13th among forwards. Moore has had good production over his last 25 games and is a high-volume shooter, but there’s a significant difference in his goal-scoring rate (0.7 goals per hour) vs. his expected goal-scoring rate (1.3 goals per hour). That’s the highest among any top-six forwards on the slate, and he’s due for a big breakout. Couple that with a small slate like there where any single player could break the slate, and I’m going to be mixing Moore into my player pool.
Ben Hutton (D, VGK-2, PP2) – @ STL – ($3,100 / $3,900)
DFO Projection: DK-5.9 / FD-7.3
Hutton has slid into the Golden Knights lineup as of late with tremendous shot volume at 9.6 shots per hour. That’s over just 68.7 minutes, but he’s getting PP2 time, and looks to be a slam dunk value play tonight.
Quinn Hughes (D, VAN-1, PP1) – vs. LAK – ($6,500 / $4,600)
DFO Projection: DK-9.5 / FD-13.0
Potential Norris Trophy winner Quinn Hughes is having an excellent season, but I don’t need to tell you that. He’s popping as one of the top value plays tonight among blueliners, with excellent shot and point production over his last 25 games. He looks to be a great play again tonight.
Honourable mention forwards
- Jake Neighbours (W, STL1, PP1) ($4,000/$5,400): DK-8.6 / FD-11.0
- Nils Hoglander (W, VAN1, PP2) ($3,500/$4,300): DK-6.9 / FD-8.9
- Pavel Dorofeyev (W, VGK3) ($3,400/$4,500): DK-6.7 / FD-8.5
Top Punt Defensemen
- Nikita Zadorov, VAN-2 ($2,500/ $3,700): DK-5.5 / FD-6.9
- Ian Cole, VAN-3 ($2,900/$3,700): DK-5.1 / FD-6.2
- Matt Roy, LAK-2 ($4,600/$4,800): DK-6.7 / FD-8.4
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.