Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — March 27th
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, and three punt options for defensemen. These largely revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings.
A new addition is the “honourable mention forwards,” taking a look at some low-owned plays that expectations should be tempered with. Still, they bring some level of value in the form of a strong projection tonight, or good past production against their opponents.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
FULL DFO Daily Projections
Jack Quinn (W, BUF2) – vs. OTT – (DK-$3,500 / FD $4,000)
DFO Projection: DK-8.8 / FD-11.7
Quinn looks to be an excellent play returning to the Sabres tonight, doubly so considering his low salary on both sites. A volume shooter who has put up 2.65 points per hour in his 17 games played this year, feel free to utilize him as a building block in your lineups.
Morgan Geekie (C, BOS3, PP2) – @ TBL – ($4,100 / $5,600)
DFO Projection: DK-6.6 / FD-8.6
BOS3 is coming in at very low ownership tonight, but have a strong matchup and strong underlying numbers. They’ve put up 61.1 CF/60 and 31.8 SCF/60, with a 3.7 xGF/60. The only problem? They’ve scored just 1.7 GF/60, meaning they are due to put the puck in the net. Geekie jumps out as the best value play of the three.
Bowen Byram (D, BUF-1, PP2) – vs. OTT – ($4,400 / $4,300)
DFO Projection: DK-8.4 / FD-11.3
Both Owen Power and Byram are right at the top of the value ranks for both sites tonight, but I’m siding with Byram here as he is projecting for around nine percent less ownership. Their underlying numbers are nearly identical, too.
Andrew Peeke (D, BOS-3) – @ TBL – ($3,000 / $3,700)
DFO Projection: DK-5.7 / FD-7.4
Meet Andrew Peeke, tonight’s Shot Block God of the Night. Projecting for 2.1 blocks, his 8.5 blocks per hour over his last 25 games are the highest among any defenceman on the slate. He’s projecting for under three percent ownership, and if he can cash the block bonus, that could be big for your lineup on a small slate like this.
Honourable mention forwards
- JJ Peterka (W, BOS2, PP1) ($4,000/$5,500): DK-8.5 / FD-10.9
- Brayden Point (C, TBL1, PP1) ($7,700/$9,000): DK-6.9 / FD-15.9
- Justin Brazeau (W, BOS4) ($2,900/ N/A): DK-6.7 / FD-N/A
Top Punt Defensemen
- Connor Clifton, BOS-3 ($2,600/ $3,900): DK-5.0 / FD-6.2
- Darren Raddysh, TBL-1 ($3,900/$4,100): DK-6.1 / FD-8.0
- Artem Zub, OTT-1 ($3,700/$3,900): DK-5.6 / FD-7.2
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.