Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays – March 5th
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, and three punt options for defensemen. These largely predicate around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots, and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus’ on DraftKings.
A new addition is the “honourable mention forwards,” taking a look at some low-owned plays that expectations should be tempered with. Still, they bring some level of value in the form of a strong projection tonight, or good past production against their opponents.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
FULL DFO Daily Projections
Lars Eller (C, PIT) – vs. CBJ – (DK-$3,400 / FD $4,200)
DFO Projection: DK-9.8 / FD-12.7
There’s a ton of chalk heading the way of the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight, set to take on the Columbus Blue Jackets. PIT1 and PIT2 are expected to swallow up around 20 percent of ownership, each, but those numbers drop significantly looking at PIT3, which Eller centers. Yet, Eller is popping as one of the best individual plays on the slate tonight and looking like a great way to get different. What helps boost his value is time on the Penguins’ top power play unit, too.
Matthew Tkachuk (W, FLA) – @ NJD – ($8,000 / $8,900)
DFO Projection: DK-14.7 / FD-19.8
Another way to get off the chalk is by playing Matthew Tkachuk. He’s producing tons of offence and generating among the best shot volume in the league, while he and the Panthers have a great matchup against the New Jersey Devils. Despite the coaching change, this Devils lineup is messy and they’re a struggling team.
Ryan Pulock (D, NYI) – vs. STL – ($4,400 / $4,700)
DFO Projection: DK-10 / FD-12.8
Pulock smashed for us last week as a value play, so we’re going back to the well this evening. Among Daily Faceoff’s top defensive values tonight, Pulock stands out as one of the cheaper options, as well as one of the lowest owned, projecting for under five percent. He blocks lots of shots, gets good shot volume away, and can chip in some points here and there.
Marcus Pettersson (D, PIT) – @ CBJ – ($3,900 / $4,500)
DFO Projection: DK-8.9 / FD-11.6
The Penguins are hard to ignore tonight, but like with Eller, Pettersson offers a great option to get different with. He’s projecting for low ownership, and brings with him good shot and block volume
Honourable mention forwards
- Alex Nylander (W, CBJ) ($2,800/$4,400): DK-7.5 / FD-9.5
- Sean Monahan (C, WPG) ($5,100/$5,900): DK-11.3 / FD-15
- Logan Stankoven (C, DAL) ($4,000/$3,700): DK-8.4 / FD-10.5
Top Punt Defensemen
- Alexandre Carrier, NSH ($3,000/$4,200): DK-7.2 / FD-9.3
- Juuso Valimaki, ARI ($2,700/$3,600): DK-6.0 / FD-8.1
- Gustav Forsling, FLA ($2,700/$5,000): DK-8.1 / FD-10.7
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.