Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — October 9th
Welcome to Daily Faceoff’s NHL DFS Value Plays, where five days a week from Monday to Friday I break down hockey’s main slate looking for the top value plays.
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel for the top forward and defensemen values, as well as honourable mention forwards and three punt options for blue liners. While the main value plays look at spots to get different and their upside, the others revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings, where all the value plays are directed for.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
Daniel Sprong (W, VAN2, PP2) – vs. CGY – (DK-$2,700 / FD $4,000)
DFO Projection: DK – 8.7/ FD – 11.4
It took a few weeks for Daniel Sprong to find a home in free agency, signing a one-year, $975,000 deal with the Vancouver Canucks on July 20th. He had a strong pre-season, putting up three assists in as many games, and is getting put into an excellent spot for DFS purposes playing on the second line with Jake DeBrusk and Elias Pettersson.
While he’s popping as a chalky option, the opportunity here for him is tremendous, getting two talented offensive players to play with, while not needing a whole lot to pay off.
Juraj Slafkovsky (W, MTL1, PP1) – vs. TOR – ($3,900 / $6,700)
DFO Projection: DK – 9.0/ FD – 11.6
We saw Dylan Guenther pop Tuesday night as the top value play, despite being $6,000, and he was the highest-scoring player on the DraftKings slate with 27.5 points. He’s a prime breakout candidate this season, but so is Slafkovsky, who is coming in at a much cheaper price tag. That’s not to say he’s going to go out and 4.5x his salary tonight, but he’s projecting well and is going to have ample opportunity to provide offence playing on Montreal’s top line and power play unit.
Filip Hronek (D, VAN-1, PP2) – vs. CGY – ($3,800 / $5,900)
DFO Projection: DK – 7.8 / FD – 10.3
Hronek was red hot to start the 2023-24 season, but his production tapered off as the season went along, bringing more than a few questions about if he was playing through injury. He’s in a great spot to have a strong start again this season, but I’ll be the first to admit I’m not entirely sold on him from a DFS standpoint.
That being said, he projects extremely well as the top value defenseman under $4,000 on DraftKings, and that can’t be ignored.
Darnell Nurse (D, EDM-2, PP2) – vs. WPG – ($4,500 / $5,800)
DFO Projection: DK – 8.5 / FD – 10.6
Darnell Nurse gets a lot of flak for his actual play as a defenseman, but he’s been a strong DFS player for years now, consistently providing upside thanks to his shot and block volume. What you may not know, however, is that over the last two years among defensemen, he’s tied for seventh in five-on-five goals with 14, and tied for 13th in points, with 56. He also often finds himself in a bit of a pricing dead zone, with people either willing to pay up or down on where he is.
The Oilers brought in Ty Emberson to flank his right side this year, and there’s a world where Nurse beings to create more offence. Couple that with the Oilers adding scoring depth, and there could even be more offensive upside for the second longest serving member of the Oilers.
Honourable mention forwards
- Jake DeBrusk (W, VAN2, PP1) ($4,300/$6,100): DK – 8.7 / FD – 11.2
- Filip Chytil (C, NYR3, PP2) ($2,900/$3,800): DK – 6.9 / FD – 8.9
- Max Domi (C, TOR2, PP2) ($3,300 / $5,000): DK – 7.4 / FD – 9.8
Top Punt Defensemen
- Lane Hutson (MTL-2, PP2) ($2,800/$4,400): DK – 5.7 / FD – 7.6
- Ryan Graves (PIT-3) ($3,000/ $3,700): DK – 5.7 / FD – 7.1
- Sam Malinski (COL-3) ($2,500/$3,500): DK – 5.3 / FD – 6.8
Tune into the DFO DFS REPORT Live at 4:00 PM EST!
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist and makes up one half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.
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