Daily NHL Betting Guide – 01/16/23
Welcome to our Betting Guide brought to you by NHL Betting site Betway!
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2022-23 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via Betway), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on Betway odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Monday, January 16
BETTING GUIDE PRESENTED BY BETWAY
Season-to-date
- Record: 69-56
- Units: +17.50
- ROI: +14.00%
Recommended Bets 💰
- 2u – Colorado Avalanche (vs. DET) ML -189
The Avalanche are coming off a 7-0 win over the Senators on Saturday, and that could be the jump-start they needed to get back on track in the second half of the season. Another jump-start could be coming on Monday, with Valeri Nichushkin potentially returning to the lineup. Head coach Jared Bednar said that Nichushkin could return Monday, and that would be a gigantic boost to the Avalanche lineup. The model loves Colorado this afternoon, giving them a 77.3 percent chance of winning today.
- 2u – Tampa Bay Lightning (@ SEA) ML -130
The Lighting are playing some of their best hockey right now, having won 12 of their last 16 games while averaging 3.9 goals for and 2.6 goals against per game. Today they face a Kraken team that just won all seven games on their road trip and has won eight in a row overall. However, during that winning streak, the Kraken have shot 17.6%, which isn’t sustainable. It’s 3.3 percent higher than the next highest over the same timeframe. This looks like a letdown spot for the Kraken, who had to travel from Chicago to Seattle following a 12-day trip. The model has the Lighting at -160, so there’s a lot of value on them at -130, as the market overvalues the Kraken’s current run.
- 1u – San Jose Sharks (vs. NJD) ML +161
Outside of a blowout loss to the Oilers on Friday, the Sharks have performed pretty well in the last month. In their last 10 games, they rank eighth in xGF/60 and xGA/60, for an xGF% of 54.21, which is the sixth-best. It’s better than the Devils, who are 13th (51.83). The issue for the Sharks has been their goaltending. During those 10 games their .861 team SV% is the worst in the NHL. They have a good chance to pull off an upset this afternoon if they can get decent goaltending from James Reimer (projected to start).
- 1u – St. Louis Blues (vs. OTT) ML -104
The Senators are having a tough go right now. They lost 7-0 in Colorado on Saturday, and their head coach, DJ Smith, is on the hot-seat right now. They’ve lost three of their last four while being outscored 21-to-9, with the only win coming against the Coyotes. The Blues are banged up but have been very competitive and have been navigating a very difficult schedule as of late. The model has them as -130 favourites, so there’s value on them as -104 home favourites.