Daily NHL Betting Guide – 02/13/23
Welcome to our Betting Guide brought to you by NHL Betting site Betway!
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2022-23 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via Betway), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on Betway odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Monday, February 13
BETTING GUIDE PRESENTED BY BETWAY
Season-to-date
- Record: 87-76
- Units: +20.85
- ROI: +12.79%
Recommended Bets 💰
Ottawa Senators (vs. CGY) ML +142
Over the last two months, these have been two of the best teams in the NHL in the Expected Goals department, with Calgary ranking third in xGF% (55.80) and Ottawa closely behind in sixth (53.71). Both teams have had issues turning xG into actual goals all season, as they are tied for the fourth-lowest SH% (8.94) in the NHL. It’s safe to say these two teams are pretty evenly matched. Both are expected to be without top defensemen, Jake Sanderson (OTT) and Rasmus Andersson (CGY). The only real difference is between the pipes, where the Senators will turn to unproven Mads Soogard because both Anton Forsberg and Cam Talbot are sidelined by injuries. Sogaard was an early second-round pick (No.37 overall) in 2019 and has stopped 51 of the 57 shots that he’s faced (.895 SV%) in three NHL appearances. In the AHL, he’s posted a .906 SV% across three seasons (63 games). With those results it’s safe to assume he could be around a .900 SV% in the NHL, which is similar to the goaltending the Senators have got all season long (.899 combined SV%). The +142 line seems like an overreaction to Sogaard, who may not be much of a downgrade at all.
1 Unit Bet: OTT ML +142
Vancouver Canucks (vs. DET) ML -117
The Canucks just lost to these Red Wings on Saturday, 5-2 in Detroit. However, Spencer Martin was beat on the first two shots that he faced and dug the Canucks into a hole they couldn’t get out of. Vancouver actually won the xG battle in that game, suggesting they could have a better fate tonight. Collin Delia will get the start for Vancouver, and while he hasn’t been great (.887 SV% on the season) he been much better than Martin.
1 Unit Bet: VAN -117