Daily NHL Betting Guide – 02/20/23
Welcome to our Betting Guide brought to you by NHL Betting site Betway!
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2022-23 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via Betway), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on Betway odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Monday, February 20
BETTING GUIDE PRESENTED BY BETWAY
Season-to-date
- Record: 95-86
- Units: +23.98
- ROI: +13.25%
Recommended Bets 💰
Ottawa Senators (@ BOS) ML +297
The Senators have a tough matchup on a back-to-back, but as +297 underdogs, the model sees them as a value on Monday. The Senators continue to play pretty well, ranking 11th in 5v5 xGF% (51.31) over their last 25 games–Boston is 13th over the same span (51.09). If the Senators can keep this game close at 5v5, their No.3 ranked power-play may be able to get the job done.
1 unit bet: OTT ML +297
Winnipeg Jets (@ NYR) ML +152
The Jets’ offence is struggling right now, but it’s not due to a lack of chances. In their last 10 games, they are second in the NHL in all situations xGF/60 (3.88) but 26th in GF/60 (2.58). As a team, they’re shooting just 8.02% (27th). The opposite has been true for the Rangers; they’ve been outperforming their xG by shooting a league-high 15.96% in their last 10 games. Even with David Rittich expected to start, the model sees value on the Jets at +152, and the hope is that positive regression sets in for Winnipeg and negative regression hits New York.
1 unit bet: WPG ML +152