Daily NHL Betting Guide – 03/23/23
Welcome to our Betting Guide brought to you by NHL Betting site Betway!
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2022-23 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via Betway), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on Betway odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Thursday, March 23
BETTING GUIDE PRESENTED BY BETWAY
Season-to-date
- Record: 122-123
- Units: +21.74
- ROI: +8.87%
Recommended Bets 💰
- 1 Unit Bet: STL ML +111
The Blues lost to the Red Wings in a shootout on Tuesday and enter Thursday as +111 road underdogs. The model likes the Blues in a bounce-back effort. Detroit has the worst 5v5 GF% (29.7%) in their last 10 games, while the Blues are 10th over that stretch (55.3%). The model likes the Blues as favourites, so getting them at plus money is nice value.
- 1 Unit Bet: NSH ML +113
The Predators continue to perform well despite missing several key players and being sellers at the trade deadline. They enter the evening just four points out of the playoffs with two games in hand. The market appears to be expecting Roman Josi to miss Thursday’s game, but it seems like there’s a chance he could be back. Getting the Predators ahead of that news would be nice value if he plays. If not, they’re home underdogs against a Seattle team that has been inconsistent this season.
- 1 Unit Bet: VGK ML +120
The Golden Knights have won six of their last seven while averaging 4.4 goals per game. Their offence will look to stay hot against a Flames team that has lost nine of their last 14 games while giving up 3.3 goals per game. The model views this game as a coin-flip, so getting them as +120 underdogs is nice value. Vegas is 2-1 while averaging 4.3 goals for and 2.7 goals against in three games against the Flames this season.
- 1 Unit Bet: PIT ML +141
The Penguins are coming off of a massive win in Colorado last night and are big +141 underdogs on the tail-end of a back-to-back tonight in Dallas. The Penguins underlying metrics suggest they are playing better than the results would indicate. They are second in the NHL in 5v5 xGF% (60.1) in their last 10 games despite going 4-5-1. Over the last two months, the Stars have just 10 wins in their last 23 games (10-6-7), so they haven’t been at their best.