Daily NHL Betting Guide – 04/03/23
Welcome to our Betting Guide brought to you by NHL Betting site Betway!
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2022-23 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via Betway), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on Betway odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Monday, April 3
BETTING GUIDE PRESENTED BY BETWAY
Season-to-date
- Record: 132-134
- Units: +23.83
- ROI: +8.96%
Recommended Bets 💰
1 Unit Bet: VGK ML +118
The Golden Knights dominated the Wild in Vegas on Saturday, winning 4-1 and crushing the Expected Goals battle 5.25-2.99. Vegas has won nine of their last 12 games (9-2-1) while averaging 4.1 goals for and 3.2 goals against per game. The Wild are also playing well, but Vegas will get Reilly Smith back on Monday, while the Wild remain without Kirill Kaprizov. The model likes VGK -103, so getting them as +118 road underdogs is a play.
1 Unit Bet: ARI ML +272
Betting on the Coyotes on the road isn’t for the faint of heart. They have just one road win since November 25th, going 1-16-8 while averaging just 2.2 goals for and 3.9 goals against per game. The xG results don’t suggest this is fluky either, as they’re second-last in xGF% (39.9%) on the road over that 25-game stretch. They’re also on a seven-game losing streak, including four in a row on home ice. With that said, the +272 line seems extreme, and the model agrees. It sees Arizona as +196 underdogs, so there’s value on the Desert Dogs.