Daily NHL Betting Guide – 11/05/22
Welcome to our Betting Guide brought to you by NHL odds site Betway!
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2022-23 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via Betway), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Saturday, November 5
BETTING GUIDE PRESENTED BY BETWAY
Season-to-date
- Record: 17-14
- Units: +5.82
- ROI: +18.76%
Recommended Bets
New York Islanders (@ DET) -128
The Islanders come into Saturday’s matinee on a five-game winning streak, having outscored their opponents 22-to-9 (4.4-to-1.8) during that stretch. On the season, the Islanders are now third in the NHL in 5v5xGF/60, while the Red Wings sit 27th. The model loves the Islanders in this game, but there’s a chance that Semyon Varlamov gets the start. There’s also a chance that Alex Nedeljkovic will start for the Red Wings, and he’s been much worst than Ville Husso this season. So the size of the bet is largely dependent on the goalie matchup. If you want to place it before the goalies are confirmed, then go with 1 unit.
- Placing before goalies are confirmed: 1 Unit (NYI -128)
- Varlamov vs. Husso: 1 unit (NYI -128)
- Varlamov vs. Nedeljkovic: 1.5 units (NYI -128)
- Sorokin vs. Husso: 1.5 units (NYI -128)
- Sorokin vs. Nedeljkovic: 2 units (NYI -128)
Boston Bruins (@ TOR) +112
I made this same statement a few days ago, getting the Bruins at plus-money right now is great value, regardless of the opponent. They’ve been extremely impressive, ranking six in 5v5 xGF% (55.2), fourth in PP xGF/60, fifth in PK xGA/60, and fifth in All Situations SV%. The Bruins are clicking in all facets of the game at the moment, while the Maple Leafs are still trying to work some things out.
1 Unit Bet: BOS +112