Daily NHL Betting Guide – 11/17/22
Welcome to our Betting Guide brought to you by NHL Betting site Betway!
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2022-23 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via Betway), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Thursday, November 17
BETTING GUIDE PRESENTED BY BETWAY
Season-to-date
- Record: 26-21
- Units: +10.08
- ROI: +21.44%
Recommended Bets
Dallas Stars (@ FLA) +147
The Stars have played very well, starting the season at 9-5-2 while ranking second in the NHL in goals per game (3.72) and seventh in goals against (2.67). On Thursday, they face a Panthers team that ranks 19th in xGA/60 (3.19), so they should be able to provide enough offence to keep up with the Florida and have an elite goalie in Jake Oettinger. The model sees Dallas at +113, so there’s a ton of value in getting them at +147.
1 Unit Bet: DAL ML +147
Tampa Bay Lightning (vs. CGY) -117
The Lightning may not be the elite team they have been in recent years but they remain great offensively, ranking eighth in the NHL in xGF/60 (3.38) but have struggled a bit defensively (22nd in xGA/60). With Brian Elliott starting their most recent game, we know Andrei Vasilevskiy will start Thursday, he should help cover up some of their defensive woes. The model views them as -154 favourites, so getting them at -117 is a great price.
1 Unit Bet: TBL ML -117
Colorado Avalanche (@ CAR) +117
The Avalanche beat the Hurricanes 4-1 last Saturday but enter Thursday’s game in Carolina as +117 underdogs. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are without Frederik Andersen and Teuvo Teravainen and have been held to one or fewer goals in three of their last five games. The model likes Colorado at -106, so getting them at plus-money is great value.
1 Unit Bet: COL ML +117
New York Islanders (@ NSH) +105
The Predators are trending in the right direction, winning their last two games but have leaned heavily on Juuse Saros to steal those games. The combined xG in those games (vs. NYR and vs. MIN) were 6.90 to 4.97. Meanwhile, the Islanders have quietly won nine of their last 11 while outscoring their opponents 38-to-25 (3.5-to-2.3). Based on xG, these two teams are pretty compareable, with the Islanders ranking 24th in xGF% while the Predators are 25th. Each teams have elite goalies, so it makes sense to grab the underdog in this matchup. The model views the Islanders as -120 favourites and you can get them at +105.
1 Unit Bet: NYI ML +105