Daily NHL betting guide: April 11
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Monday, April 11
Model’s Picks
Record: 68-64
Units: -1.17
ROI: -0.88%
Recommended Bets
MTL/WPG Under 6.5 Total (+105)
Under 6.5 has hit in four of the Jets’ last seven games, with an average of 6.1 total goals per game over that stretch. The results haven’t quite been the same for the Canadiens, averaging a total of 7.5 goals per game in their last eight but under 6.5 has actually hit in four of those games.
The total is inflated because Eric Comrie is expected to start for the Jets on a back-to-back and Sam Montembeault will start with Jake Allen out. Both goalies have actually performed pretty well this season, so I’m not overly concerned about the goaltending. With Mark Scheifele out and Blake Wheeler doubtful, the Jets offence could have a bit of a tougher time on Monday.
1 Unit Bet: MTL/WPG Under 6.5 Total (+105)
Yaremchuk’s Picks
Yaremchuk’s Pick – Jets in regulation (+100)
It’s a quiet night on the sports schedule, so it makes sense that the NHL only has one game on tap tonight. Either way, I’m betting on it and I like the Jets in this game. Even money on them to win in regulation feels like good value considering the Canadiens have just three wins in their last ten games. The Jets have been very average as of late and even though they did play last night, they could be going with Eric Comrie tonight and he’s won five of his last six starts.
Yaremchuk’s Prop – Nik Ehlers over 0.5 assists (+115)
Ehlers has hit this number in four of his last five games, so I love taking him to hit it again tonight against the Canadiens. It’s a solid matchup, Ehlers is red hot, and the payout is +115. I’m all over this one. He had two apples yesterday against the Senators too!
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