Daily NHL betting guide: April 19
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Tuesday, April 19
Model’s Picks
Record: 71-67
Units: +1.88
ROI: +1.36%
Recommended Bets
TOR/PHI UNDER 7.0 (+103)
The Maple Leafs are one of the most high-powered offences in the NHL and the Flyers have obviously had a tough time keeping the puck out of their own net. As a result, the Over/Under tonight is set at 7.0. However, with Auston Matthews out, there’s a chance Toronto could have a more difficult time than usual scoring goals. On the defensive side, Jack Campbell gets the start, which is good news for the under. Additionally, the Maple Leafs have the third-best xGA/60 (2.25) in their last 25 games while the Flyers have the sixth-lowest xGF/60 (2.28).
There’s a good chance this game is a blowout but 5-1 would still lead to the under cashing at +103.
1 Unit Bet: TOR/PHI Under 7.0 (+103)
Yaremchuk’s Pick – LA Kings in regulation (-105)
The Kings have a chance to pick up a massive two points tonight and put some distance between themselves and the Vegas Golden Knights. They’re taking on a Ducks team that has just three wins in their last ten games and while the Kings only have four in that span, but in that span they’ve basically just beaten the bad teams they’ve gone up against and lost to teams ahead of them in the standings. They aren’t letting points slip and I like that trend to continue tonight against the Ducks. I also like the Wild to cover the puck line against Montreal at -105. The Wild are 6-1-3 in their last ten games and covered the puck line in four of those wins.
Yaremchuk’s Prop – Kevin Fiala over 0.5 assists (+115)
Fiala is a man on fire right now. On top of picking up three assists in his last game alone, he’s hit this mark in four of his last five games. The matchup is great for the Wild tonight and I’m willing to be on Fiala keeping his hot streak going. The plus money payout is nice as well.
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