Daily NHL betting guide: April 21
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Thursday, April 21
Model’s Picks
Record: 71-68-1
Units: +0.88
ROI: +0.63%
Recommended Bets
TBL/TOR Under 7.0 (-123)
We nearly hit the TOR/PHI Under 7.0 on Tuesday but Ilya Mikheyev scored with 1:33 left to make it 5-2, giving us a push. We’re going to try again tonight with the Maple Leafs in Tampa. With a likely goaltending matchup of Andrei Vasilevskiy vs. Jack Campbell and Auston Matthews still questionable, it seems like a good bet.
The Lightning have played in some lower-scoring games lately, with Under 7.0 hitting in 12 of their last 20 games (60%). They’ve averaged 2.9 goals for and 2.7 goals against (5.6 total) over that span. If Matthews doesn’t play, this could very easily be a 3-2 game.
1 Unit Bet: TBL/TOR Under 7.0 (-123)
Proceed with Caution
Chicago Blackhawks (@ LAK)
The Blackhawks are +208 road underdogs in Los Angeles and the model sees value in that. However, with Collin Delia expected to start in the second half of a back-to-back, it’s a risky bet. Chicago has lost 10 of their last 12 games and narrowly escaped defeat in Arizona last night.
Yaremchuk’s Pick – St. Louis -1.5 vs San Jose (+130)
HOT STREAK CONTINUES! My record this week is 8-1-0 and I’m up 7.1 units so we’ll look to eep that rolling. The Blues have been one of the best teams in the NHL over the past few weeks. They’re 9-0-2 this month and have outscored their opposition by an average of 2.27 goals. They’ve covered the puck line in seven of those games. Tonight, they play a Sharks team that is just 1-4-4 this month. I’m also riding with the Sabres as +115 underdogs against New Jersey. Buffalo is 6-4-1 on the road since the beginning of March and they’re currently riding a two-game winning streak.
Yaremchuk’s Prop – Jeff Skinner over 0.5 assists (+185)
+185 for something that’s happened in back-to-back games? I’m in. This is a good matchup for the Sabres and Skinner has three assists in his last two games. It’s risky, but I’m willing to take the gamble on this. For a safer play, I’m taking Claude Giroux to extend his assist streak to five games tonight as the Panthers play the Red Wings. Detroit has been averaging four goals against per game since the start of March and Florida has scored an average of 3.93.
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