Daily NHL betting guide: April 28
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Thursday, April 28
Model’s Picks
Record: 71-70-1
Units: -1.47
ROI: -1.04%
Recommended Bets
VAN/LAK Over 6.0 (-115)
The Canucks’ offence has been red-hot as of late, scoring 4.6 goals per game in their last 10 games. Over that stretch, they’ve scored at least three goals in all 10 games. They’ve given up 2.9 goals against per game and will have Spencer Martin between the pipes instead of Thatcher Demko again on Thursday.
Similarly, the Kings have averaged 3.2 goals for and 3.1 goals against in their last 10 games. They’ll most likely go away from the red-hot Jonathan Quick, with Cal Petersen expected to start on the tail-end of their back-to-back. They rested some bodies last night but still scored five goals.
There’s a good chance that this is a 4-3 hockey game, the way both teams have been playing as of late.
1 Unit Bet: VAN/LAK Over 6.0 (-115)
Yaremchuk’s Pick – Boston -1.5 vs Buffalo (-120)
Another solid 2-1 night with both hits being plus money! That has me sitting at +9.9 units on the year! Tonight, I’m really digging this matchup for the Sabres. First off, Dustin Tokarski is starting for the Sabres and he’s allowed an average of four goals against over his last five starts. Linus Ullmark is expected to go for Boston and he has been one of the best goalies in the league this month with a .937 save percentage in six starts. The Bruins have a lot to play for and have won three in a row. I like this spot. I’m also on the Avalanche -1.5 vs the Predators. The Preds are without Juuse Saros and the Avalanche are averaging just under four goals per game this month. The payout is +100 and I like that.
Yaremchuk’s Prop – Patrice Bergeron over 0.5 assists (+130)
A similar strategy to the Pavelski pick that night. Bergeron is a top-line centre on a team that should score tonight. He’s gotten an assist in back-to-back games and I see no reason why he can’t extend that streak to three. A +130 payout makes this a great play.
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