Daily NHL betting guide: December 11
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During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Pick
Recommended Bets
Carolina Hurricanes (at EDM)
After a three-game losing streak to end November, the Hurricanes come into Saturday on a three-game winning streak. They’ve beaten the Jets and Flames to start their road trip and will look to stay hot vs. the Oilers.
Edmonton is on a four-game losing streak and its offense has gone cold, scoring just 1.75 goals per game during that time.
Their historically good power play to start the season has hit a dry patch, converting on just three of their last 21 chances (14.3 percent). It could have a tough time getting going tonight vs. a Hurricanes team that has the No. 1 ranked PK according to my PK SCORE. Factor in that Carolina is also the better team at 5v5 and the Hurricanes are a nice plus-money bet tonight.
1 Unit Bet: CAR +106
Columbus Blue Jackets (at SEA)
In the last couple of weeks, the Blue Jackets and Kraken have been two of the worst offensive teams in the NHL. In their last 10 games, Seattle ranks last in xGF/60 (1.82) and Columbus has the fourth-lowest (1.91).
With two inept offences going head-to-head, it’s easy to lean towards the team with the better goaltending. Elvis Merzlikins has been among the best in the league, while Philipp Grubauer is dead last in Goals Saved Above Expected (-17.3).
The model is in agreement, seeing the Blue Jackets as -104 favorites when they’re +144 in the sportsbooks.
1 Unit Bet: CBJ +144
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Recommended Bets
Toronto/Chicago over 6.0 total goals (-125)
I was really torn here. There was a part of me that wanted to go with the Leafs on the puck line, but I’m just not sure if I trust Petr Mrazek, so I’m going with the over. Mrazek hasn’t played since Oct. 30th and in two starts this year, he’s allowed seven goals.
The Blackhawks haven’t been a great over team recently, but they’re starting Kevin Lankinen tonight and his GAA is just north of three. The Leafs have also been a really solid over bet recently with the number hitting or pushing in six straight.
Sonny Milano over 0.5 points at PIT (+110)
Milano had a four-game point streak snapped in the Ducks’ last game against Columbus and I like him to bounce back tonight. He also has 20 points in 23 games this season.
The Penguins are playing on the second of back-to-backs as well, so I think the Ducks should be able to produce some offence. Getting a top-line player who also plays on the powerplay at plus money like this is a good spot.