Daily NHL betting guide: December 14
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Pick
Recommended Bets
Tampa Bay Lightning (vs. LAK)
The Lightning seem to be one of the few teams not dealing with COVID-19 tonight, in fact they are expected to get a little healthier. Both Anthony Cirelli and Zach Bogosian are expected to draw back into the lineup for Tampa Bay as they host a Kings team that is 4-4-2 on the road this season. Despite being fairly large favorites (-176), the model sees enough value in betting the Lightning tonight with Andrei Vasilevskiy between the pipes.
1 Unit Bet: TBL -176
St. Louis Blues (@ DAL)
At first, betting a Blues team without Robert Thomas and Brayden Schenn and both their goalies seems like a bad idea. But then you factor in the Stars are without Roope Hintz, Alexander Radulov and Joel Kiviranta and are still favored to win and it starts to look a little better. Not to mention, Charlie Lindgren has been a revelation for the Blues, going 3-0-0 with a 1.42 GAA and .947 SV% in three games. At +135, there is plenty of value on the Blues tonight, even if they are a little dinged up.
1 Unit Bet: STL +135
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
New York Islanders (@ DET)
We are going to pass on the Islanders tonight. They are going to be without Mathew Barzal, while the Red Wings will get Tyler Bertuzzi back.
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Recommended Bets
Dallas in regulation vs. STL (-105)
The Stars have lost three in a row, but I like their chances of bouncing back tonight on home ice. They’ve been a great team at home this season with a record of 9-2-1 and they’ve actually won eight home games in a row, all in regulation. The Blues are just 5-5-1 on the road and have just five wins in their last 10 games. I like this spot.
Player Prop
Crosby over 0.5 assists vs. MTL (-135)
Crosby had his seven-game assist streak snapped in the Penguins’ game on Saturday against the Ducks. But I think he can pick up at least one tonight in the Penguins’ matchup against the Canadiens. The Habs give up an average of 3.79 goals per game as the road team this season and while the Penguins only found the back of the net once against Anaheim, they have scored 11 goals in their last three games. Pittsburgh should score more than one goal tonight and I think Crosby will be involved.