Daily NHL betting guide: December 16
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During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Pick
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
Carolina Hurricanes (vs. DET)
It’s not surprising to see the model strongly urging you to bet on the Hurricanes at -164 vs. the Red Wings. Because on a normal day, they’d be much heavier favorites. However, the NHL is not normal right now. COVID-19 is racing through locker rooms tonight and frankly, it’s surprising the Hurricanes are even playing tonight.
Carolina placed Jordan Staal, Andrei Svechnikov, Ian Cole and Steven Lorentz in COVID Protocol yesterday, joining Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, who tested positive in Vancouver. As a result of all of these positives, the Hurricanes will be forced to play a couple of players short and without 44.4 percent of their top-9.
Montreal Canadiens (vs. PHI)
The model likes the Canadiens tonight as +120 home underdogs, however, it has not had time to adjust for the Flyers coaching change.
Since going from Alain Vigneault to Mike Yeo, the Flyers have been a lot better, especially defensively. The sample size isn’t huge (five games) but they’ve gone from 2.83 xGA/60 under Vigneault to 2.40 xGA/60 with Yeo behind the bench.
Meanwhile, the Canadiens are still among the worst 5v5 teams in the NHL, sitting with 30th with a 45.67 xGF%. Even as underdogs, it’s difficult to agree with the model which is still absorbing information about the new Philadelphia Flyers.
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick
COL to defeat NSH in regulation (-110)
Both of these teams are coming into this matchup riding five-game winning streaks, but I still like the Avalanche here.
The Predators have ran into some big COVID problems and are going to be playing this game with fewer than the usual 18 skaters.
The Avs aren’t exactly healthy, either, but they’ll have a full lineup. I’m taking Colorado to not just win, but win in regulation, which is something it has done in each time during their five-game heater.
Stamkos Over 0.5 assists vs. OTT (-130)
I’m sticking with the assist props that seem to be working well for me.
Stamkos has picked up an assist in four of his last five games and in seven of his last ten.
Yes, the Senators shut out the Lightning over the weekend, but I don’t think that’s going to happen again. The Lightning should produce some offense tonight and I like the chances of Stamkos being involved.