Daily NHL betting guide: December 18
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Picks
Recommended Bets
Carolina Hurricanes (vs. LAK)
Both of these teams have been hit fairly hard by COVID-19, so that should balance things out. The Kings will be without Drew Doughty on the back end and the Hurricanes’ list is pretty significant. Still, their blue line is almost fully intact and their call-ups were terrific on Thursday.
They’ll go from 10 forwards to 12 forwards tonight, relying once again on five AHLers to help pitch in. With Frederik Andersen between the pipes it gives the Hurricanes a great chance at winning tonight. In their last 10 games, the Hurricanes are No.1 in the NHL in xGF/60 (3.16) and No.4 in xGF% (57.78). The Kings are middle of the pack in both categories.
Carolina is -162 at PointsBet but the model views them as the largest favorites (-201) on the slate.
1 unit bet: CAR -162
Edmonton Oilers (@ SEA)
The Oilers recently lost Jesse Puljujarvi and Duncan Keith to COVID-19 protocol but should get Slater Koekkoek back to help offset the loss on the blue line. Their offense finally woke up on Thursday and draw a nice matchup tonight in Seattle–the Kraken have given up 3.75 goals against per game in their last eight games.
1 Unit Bet: EDM -108
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick
Carolina in regulation vs. LAK (-105)
The Canes have been a good home team this season with a record of 8-5-0. They’ve also won four of their last five games. Tonight, they’ll go up against a Kings team that is just 5-3-4 on the road. Freddie Andersen is the likely starter for Carolina and he’s been lights out recently with just nine goals against in his last five games.
For the sake of my record, I’m also taking over 6.5 goals in the Philadelphia vs Ottawa game. Martin Jones vs. Anton Forsberg is the goaltending matchup and both of these teams are averaging at least three goals scored per game over their last five.
Prop Pick
Thomas Chabot Over 0.5 assists vs. PHI (+115)
Like I just said, I think there will be plenty of offense in this game.
Chabot has 16 assists in 27 games this season and has at least one assist in five of his last six games. He plays a ton for this Senators team, including on the top power-play unit, which lines up nicely with the fact that the Flyers are one of the most penalized teams in the league, sitting 5th last in times shorthanded per game.