Daily NHL betting guide: December 30
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Picks
Recommended Bets
Panthers and Lightning go Over 6.5 total goals (+103)
Though the model likes Tampa Bay at +134, it doesn’t see that the Lightning are missing Andrei Vasilevskiy, Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev or Erik Cernak. So we’re going to avoid that tonight.
However, this game looks like a pretty interesting Over spot. The model is already projecting 6.2 goals between the two teams and I think you can reasonably expect it to be a high-scoring game with a projected goaltending matchup of Spencer Knight vs. Maxime Lagace.
Knight has struggled mightily this season (.892 SV%) and didn’t even perform well in his only AHL start (five goals against). Meanwhile, Lagace looked decent in his Lightning debut and still gave up four goals. He has a career .875 SV%, so this one could get high-scoring in a hurry.
1 Unit Bet: Over 6.5 +103
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick
Yaremchuk’s Pick: FLA/TB over 6.5 (-121)
The total went Over in each of these teams’ first games since returning from the break and I think we could see that happen again here tonight. We could very well see Maxim Lagace start again for the Lightning while the Panthers starter is expected to be Spencer Knight.
Regardless, these are two teams who are both top ten in goals for per game so I like the total to go over here.
Prop Pick
Sebastian Aho Over 0.5 assists vs. MTL (-112)
We nailed it with a Mike Zibenejad assist last night, which made up for the miss on the Flyers/Kraken over.
Tonight, I’m going out to Carolina where the odds for Sebastian Aho to pick up an assist are very low. First off, the Canes are playing a Canadiens team that they should have no problem beating and scoring a lot of goals against.
Secondly, Aho has picked up at least one apple in four of his last five games and has seven total in that span.