Daily NHL betting guide: December 9
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During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Pick
Recommended Bet
St. Louis Blues (vs. DET)
This is a bit of a tough spot for the Blues, missing both of their top-two goalies, Robert Thomas, David Perron, Justin Faulk and Tyler Bozak. Charlie Lindgren is scheduled to make his Blues debut and faces a struggling Red Wings offense.
Over the last month, Detroit’s 26th in the NHL in xGF/60, and the top line hasn’t been nearly as dominant without Tyler Bertuzzi. Lindgren has been excellent at the AHL level this season, going 8-1-1 with a 2.16 GAA and .925 SV%. He’s been solid in 25 career NHL games, so he may not be a substantial downgrade between the pipes.
The injuries are baked into the line (-165), and the model sees them as the biggest favorites on the slate (-201). Even with some key players missing, the model sees enough value on the Blues.
1 Unit Bet: STL -165
Proceed with Caution
Montreal Canadiens (vs. CHI)
Unlike the Blues, it’s hard to have as much confidence in the Canadiens’ banged-up roster. Over the last month, they are averaging the highest xGA/60 (2.99) and third-fewest xGF/60 (1.85)–their 39.95 xGF% is the worst rate in the league over that span.
Now Montreal will be without Christian Dvorak, Tyler Toffoli, Josh Anderson and Jeff Petry, among others. The Blackhawks have been way better under interim head coach Derek King, so it’s hard to buy into the model’s love for an injury-riddled Montreal team at +119.
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Recommended Bet
Minnesota Wild: Money Line vs. San Jose (-145)
The Wild are riding a seven-game winning streak coming into this game and I think they’ll make it eight. They’re 8-4-1 on the road so far this season and tonight they’ll go up against Aaron Dell, who’s allowed eight goals in his last two starts.
Cam Talbot (unconfirmed) could be going for the Wild and he stopped 38 of 39 shots in the team’s win on Tuesday vs Edmonton. The Wild are top ten in 5v5 GF% and SF% while the Sharks are in the bottom third of the league in both of those categories. Plenty of reasons to like the Wild tonight.
Trevor Zegras over 0.5 assists at CBJ (+140)
Now, some people might laugh at this and think I’m only making this a pick because Zegras made the highlight-reel play this week but after looking at the numbers, it’s clear that there is some value here.
Zegras has picked up eight assists in his last four games and has picked up at least one apple in seven of his last 10 games. Tonight, he’ll get to face a Blue Jackets team that’s allowed 12 goals in their last three games. The Ducks should have plenty of chances to score tonight and I like the odds of Zegras getting involved with an apple.
RECORD: 55-33-3 +17 units