Daily NHL betting guide: February 15
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Tuesday, February 15
Model’s Picks
Recommended Bets
Ottawa Senators (vs. STL)
The Senators are going to be without some key pieces tonight (Drake Batherson, Josh Norris and Thomas Chabot) but that is baked into the +194 number. The Blues are a team that many perceive to be very good but they have had a very difficult time lately. In their last 25 games, they are 26th in xGF/60 (2.26) and 31st in xGA/60 (2.93) at 5v5. That gives them the third-worst xGF% (43.54) over that stretch, better than only the Canadiens and Rangers. Ottawa ranks closer to the middle of the pack at 48.21 percent. This game will likely be closer than the +194 suggests and the model sees plenty of value on the Senators at that number.
1 Unit Bet: OTT +194
Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick: Islanders vs Sabres over 5.5 (-110)
The over has hit in two of the Islanders’ three games so far on this road trip and tonight they’ll be going up against a Sabres team that has had the over hit in three games in a row. The Islanders have been a good defensive team all season but have actually allowed three or more goals in three straight games. I think this one should get to at least six total goals.
Prop Pick: Andre Burakovsky over 0.5 assists (+150)
I’m taking a bit of a shot here because I really like this payout, but Burakovsky has been decent at picking up assists recently. He’s hit this mark in three of his last five games but just five of his last ten. When he’s been getting on the scoresheet recently, it’s been all assists. He hasn’t scored in 12 games but has seven assists over that span. I like him to pick up one tonight against a Dallas team that Colorado scored four goals against on Sunday.