Daily NHL betting guide: February 24
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Thursday, February 24
Model’s Picks
Recommended Bets
The model and the sportsbooks appear to be in lockstep on Thursday, as it’s not suggesting a bet for the second straight day. We hit our Cole Caufield Over 0.5 Goals (+205) last night, so let’s see if we can hit another prop tonight!
BONUS Bet:
Sam Bennett Over 0.5 Goals (+169)
Let’s go to another goal prop tonight. The Panthers are coming off of a disappointing loss to the Predators but draw a great matchup on Thursday. The Blue Jackets are among the worst defensive teams in the NHL and will have J-F Berube in net again. He’s been great in his first two starts but is has a .900 SV% across a much larger sample size (36 career appearances). Additionally, the Panthers have averaged an insane 8.5 goals per game in their two meetings with the Blue Jackets this season. If they get anywhere close to that, there’s a good chance that Bennett will be involved. Bennett is ninth in the NHL in xGF/60 (1.1) at 5v5 and is among the best values for the Panthers’ goal scorers tonight at +169.
1 Unit Bet: Bennett Over 0.5 Goals (+169)
Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick: Florida Panthers over 4.5 goals (-110)
J-F Berube has been a fantastic story for the Blue Jackets, picking up two wins in his two games since being recalled. I just don’t think his strong play will last. The Blue Jackets allowed a total of 78 shots against in his two recent starts and tonight they’ll have to try to slow down a dangerous Florida Panthers team. Florida has hit this mark in two of their last three games and was just one goal away from doing it against Nashville on Tuesday. I think the Panthers can run up the score a little tonight against CBJ and this is much better value than taking them on the puckline. I’m also on the Penguins puckline tonight vs the Devils, as I explained on The Daily Faceoff Show.
Prop Pick: Sam Reinhart over 0.5 assists (+105)
Reinhart is riding a three-game assist streak and has hit this mark in six of his last ten games. Even though he isn’t in the Panthers’ top-six right now, he’s still on their top powerplay unit, which is fourth in the league in PP% since the start of January. There aren’t a lot of players on the Panthers who are plus money to grab an assist tonight, so I’m confident riding with Reinhart.