Daily NHL betting guide: February 26
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Saturday, February 26
Model’s Picks
Recommended Bets
New York Rangers (@ PIT)
The Penguins are coming off of an ugly loss to the Devils but are still -158 favourites against the Rangers on Saturday. Nobody would mistake the Rangers for being the best team in the NHL, since the start of January they are 28th in the NHL in xGF% (45.7) but there is one thing for certain–Igor Shesterkin is the best goalie in the NHL right now. He has a dazzling 1.98 GAA and .940 SV% in 32 starts this season and has allowed two or fewer goals in six straight games. Over that stretch, he has an absurdly impressive .957 SV%. When he starts, the Rangers have a chance to win against any team in the NHL. The model vehemently agrees, seeing more value on them than any of the 20 teams in action on Saturday. NYR is +142 in the sportsbooks right now but the model sees them at +113–a 47.0 percent chance of winning.
1 Unit Bet: NYR +142
Nashville Predators (vs. TBL)
The Predators will be hosting their first outdoor game on Saturday, facing the reigning champions at Nissan Stadium. After an ugly four-game losing streak, the Predators have back-to-back impressive wins this week (@FLA & vs. DAL) and will look to make it three straight. The model still sees the Lightning as the favourites in his game (-118) but enough value on the Predators (+151) to recommend a bet.
Being an outdoor game, in front of a national audience, you know that Juuse Saros will get the start.
1 Unit Bet: NSH +151
Yaremchuk’s Picks
Toronto puck line vs Detroit (+120)
We missed on the Vegas pick last night but made up that money with a nice +140 parlay. I always get nervous betting on the Leafs because I swear every time I do they end up losing, but I do like this spot. Toronto looked good in their win over Minnesota earlier this week, Auston Matthews is red-hot, and the Wings are a super average team. They’re 3-3-0 this month and failed to cover the puck line in all of those losses. I like Toronto to win big tonight. I also like Colorado to beat Vegas in regulation at -110. The Golden Knights played last night and have Robin Lehner on IR, so their options are to keep playing Brossoit or go with Logan Thompson. I think Colorado rolls tonight.
Yaremchuk’s Prop – Taylor Hall over 0.5 assists (+160)
Taylor Hall has picked up at least an assist in two of his last three games and he’s going to keep playing on a line with the red-hot David Pastrnak, so I like his chances of keeping his production up. They’re playing the San Jose Sharks tonight and they’ve allowed at least three goals in all six of their games this month.