Daily NHL betting guide: February 28
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Monday, February 28
Model’s Picks
Recommended Bets
Vancouver Canucks (@ NJD)
The Canucks are red-hot right now, winning three straight and five of their last six. Over that stretch, Vancouver is averaging an impressive 4.8 goals for per game and 3.0 goals against. The goals against seem alarming but they’re inflated by a 7-goal performance by the Anaheim Ducks, Vancouver has held their opponents to two or fewer goals in four of the six games. On a back-to-back, Jaroslav Halak is expected to start but that’s built into the line (+106), so the model sees a ton of value on the Canucks tonight.
New Jersey has lost 10 of their last 13 while being outscored 54-to-42 (4.2-to-3.2 per game).
1 Unit Bet: VAN +106
Los Angeles Kings (vs. BOS)
The Kings are also on a heater right now, winning five in a row (including four on the road) while outscoring their opponents 21-to-11 (4.2-to-2.2). To be fair, two of those games were against the Arizona Coyotes. Since the beginning of January, the Kings are fifth in the NHL in Points%, going 14-5-2 (.714 P%) while averaging 3.5 goals-for and 2.8 goals-against.
The Bruins are also playing well but are playing their third game in five days. As home underdogs, the model sees enough value on the Kings to recommend a bet. Los Angeles won 3-2 in their first meeting of the season.
1 Unit Bet: LAK +117
Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick: Vancouver moneyline vs New Jersey (+110)
I’m gonna be totally honest, I really thought about getting greedy here and taking the Canucks in regulation. I’ll play it safe though and just take the moneyline. The Canucks are playing on the second of a back-to-back, which is concerning here, but they’ve been playing some really good hockey as of late. They’re 7-3-0 in their last ten while their opponents tonight, the Devils, are just 3-7-0. If you go back to January 1st, the Canucks are 14th in the NHL in points percentage while the Devils are 30th. Jaroslav Halak, if he ends up starting, has only allowed 13 goals in his last five starts as well.
Prop Pick: Elias Pettersson over 0.5 assists (+115)
Pettersson has really found his game as of late. He’s hit this mark in four of his last five games and has seven assists in that span. I like him to keep rolling tonight against a Devils team that has allowed an average of 4.38 goals against per game in February, a number that is third-worst in the NHL. I also will be putting half a unit of Pettersson to go over 1.5 points tonight. Backing the Canucks hard tonight, so let’s hope it pays off!