Daily NHL betting guide: January 11
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Picks
Columbus Blue Jackets (vs. CHI)
The Blue Jackets have had a really difficult time on the road, losing eight of their last nine, but have been much better in Columbus. Coming into Tuesday’s game, they’ve won six of their last nine (6-2-1) while averaging 3.67 GF/gm and 3.44 GA/gm (which is a little skewed by the seven-goal performances from Carolina and Tampa Bay). As long as they aren’t facing the best teams in the NHL, they’ve had plenty of success at Nationwide Arena.
They won their first meeting vs. Chicago and the Blackhawks have one of the lowest-scoring offences in the league. Columbus has averaged 3.0 goals per game since Patrik Laine returned to the lineup and the model likes the Blue Jackets as slight home underdogs (-102).
1 Unit Bet: CBJ -102
Vegas Golden Knights (vs. TOR)
Vegas is playing some terrific hockey right now, even if the results haven’t always been there. In their last 10 games, the Golden Knights rank fourth in the NHL in xGF% (56.56), seven spots ahead of the Maple Leafs (52.09). Sportsbooks have Vegas as slight home underdogs (+101) but the model sees the Golden Knights as slight favorites (-125).
1 Unit Bet: VGK +101
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick
Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5) at Buffalo Sabres (-120)
I like Tampa Bay to beat up on the Sabres tonight. Andrei Vasilevskiy is starting for the Lightning and while they’re just 2-2 so far in January, they did cover the puck line in each of those victories. The Sabres have lost four games in a row, so I don’t have a problem betting against them, either. Tampa Bay is getting healthy and I think the Lightning will handle Buffalo rather easily tonight.
Prop Pick
Jake Guentzel over 0.5 assists at Anaheim (+115)
I like the potential for a plus money payout on a guy who has picked up an assist in seven of this last 10 games and has five multi-point performances in his last six games. He’s on fire and the Penguins are playing a Ducks team that has allowed an average of three goals per game so far this month.