Daily NHL betting guide: January 15
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Picks
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
If both teams were fully healthy, I could get behind betting the Blues at +160. However, the Maple Leafs are almost at 100 percent and the Blues will likely be without Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, Colton Parayko and Pavel Buchnevich, all of who are in COVID-19 protocol. That’s too many key players to confidently agree with the model’s assessment of St. Louis having a 50.6% chance of winning tonight’s game.
With that said, Tarasenko, Schenn and Parayko are all eligible to be activated and play if they produce the negative tests required to play. If we get word that they are back in, consider this a 1 unit play at +160.
1 Unit Bet: STL +160 (if Tarasenko, Parayko and Schenn play)
Lines to Watch
St. Louis is the only game the model is strongly considering a bet but it is very, very close on a few games. Here are the bets to consider if there’s line movement.
Team ➡ Current Line ➡ Bet Line
CAR ➡ (-199) ➡ (-193)
NYI ➡ (+121) ➡ (+123)
NYR ➡ (-140) ➡ (-127)
ANA ➡ (+123) ➡ (+128)
LAK ➡ (-128) ➡ (-122)
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick
Edmonton Oilers Puck Line (-1.5) vs Ottawa (+115)
My first of three plays today. I’m backing McDavid and the Oilers as they host the Ottawa Senators. Edmonton dominated Ottawa last season, going 9-0-0 and outscoring the Sens 41-18. Edmonton also recalled Stuart Skinner ahead of this game and he’s won each of his last two starts at the NHL level. I like the Oilers to roll tonight on home ice.
I’m also taking the Avalanche on the Puck Line (-150) in their second straight game against the Coyotes.
Sebastian Aho Over 0.5 assists (-115)
It’s been a rough couple of days on the prop front, but we’ll trust the process and keep going today. I like Sebastian Aho to grab an apple this afternoon against the Vancouver Canucks. Aho has four assists in his last five games and he’s going up against a Canucks team that has allowed nine goals in the first two games of their current road trip.