Daily NHL betting guide: January 17
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Picks
Recommended Bets
Vegas Golden Knights (vs. PIT)
The Golden Knights and Penguins are in a pick em’ tonight, both sitting at -105. The line opened at PIT -110, so most of the early money is coming in on Vegas but the model still likes them at -105.
Pittsburgh hasn’t been quite as dominant on its road trip as it was prior. The Penguins have won three of five, but narrowly scraped by the Sharks on Saturday and have averaged only 2.5 goals in their last four games.
Vegas hasn’t necessarily been great lately either but the Golden Knights have injuries to blame for that. Shea Theodore, Nolan Patrick and Nicolas Roy will be back in tonight, helping to match the Penguins’ depth. In six meetings between Vegas and Pittsburgh, each team has three wins.
1 Unit Bet: VGK -105
Lines to Watch
The model isn’t currently recommending bets on these games but would be if the line moves enough:
Team ➡ Current Line ➡ Bet Line
BUF ➡ +118 ➡ +122
MIN ➡ +204 ➡ +223
LAK ➡ -105 ➡ +104
CHI ➡ +102 ➡ +107
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick
Detroit Red Wings Money Line vs. Buffalo Sabres (-136)
The Wings beat the Sabres 4-0 over the weekend and I don’t see why they can’t get another win today. They are just 2-3-2 so far in January, but the Sabres haven’t been much better, with just one win in five games this month. Aaron Dell is expected to start for Buffalo and he has a 3.89 GAA this season. If the Red Wings go with Alex Nedelkjovic (still unconfirmed) then I like this play even more considering he’s only allowed ten goals in his last five starts.
Prop Pick
Dylan Larkin Over 0.5 assists vs. Buffalo Sabres (+125)
Larkin hasn’t exactly been an assist machine this season and he’s only picked up an assist in five of his last ten. But I really like this matchup for the Red Wings and Larkin did grab two apples on Saturday when the Red Wings beat the Sabres. I’m going heavy into this matchup, let’s hope Larkin and the Wings pull through!