Daily NHL betting guide: January 18
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Picks
Recommended Bets
Carolina Hurricanes (vs. BOS)
The Hurricanes bounced back from an ugly 6-0 loss to the Blue Jackets with a 4-1 win over the Canucks on Saturday. They’ve now won 10 of their last 13. They catch a buzzsaw on Tuesday, as the Bruins are on a five-game winning streak and winners of eight of their last nine.
The sportsbooks have the Bruins as -136 favorites, but the model sees the Hurricanes as the narrowest of favorites (-103). So, it sees enough value on Carolina to bet the Hurricanes at +123. There won’t be many instances where the Hurricanes will be underdogs this season, so take advantage of it.
1 Unit Bet: CAR +123
Nashville Predators (vs. VAN)
The Predators are on a back-to-back and will likely go to David Rittich in goal as a result. Typically, I would stay away from them because of that, but the Canucks recently announced that Bo Horvat is in COVID-19 protocol and will not play. That balances the scales for me, so let’s listen to the model and bet them at -127 home favorites.
1 Unit Bet: NSH -127
Los Angeles Kings (vs. TBL)
The Kings are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Sharks yesterday and have a tough matchup with the Lighting in town on Tuesday. The model thinks the Lightning are the better team (-135) but sees enough value in the Kings at +178 to recommend a bet. In the last 10 games, these are the top-twp teams in the NHL in xGF%, with Los Angeles ranking first (61.37%) and Tampa Bay sitting second (58.94).
1 Unit Bet: LAK +178
Proceed with Caution
Montreal Canadiens (@ DAL)
The Canadiens lost in Arizona last night and will be without Cole Caufield and Joel Armia (COVID-19 protocol) tonight, so let’s not bet on Montreal right now.
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Dallas Stars -1.5 vs Montreal Canadiens (-125)
Alright, I have been ICE COLD recently, but still up almost 10 units on the season, so I’m focusing on the bright side. Still, I gotta get back in the win column soon and tonight, I’m taking the Dallas Stars to beat the Montreal Canadiens by at least two goals.
The Habs lost to the Arizona Coyotes yesterday and I have no reason to think that they will be able to compete with the Stars tonight. Dallas has a home record of 14-3-1 this season and while the Stars have been pretty average of late with just five wins in their last 10 games, I think they can get back on track with a win tonight.
Victor Hedman Over 0.5 assists at Kings (-115)
Not a great payout here, but the Lightning are going up against a Kings team that allowed six goals to the Sharks yesterday. I like Tampa Bay’s chances of getting the offense going tonight and I think Hedman should be able to pick up an assist. He has a total of five in his last five games and over his last 10 games, he’s had at least one assist in seven of them.