Daily NHL betting guide: January 20
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Picks
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
Washington Capitals (@ BOS)
The model is recommending a bet on the Capitals tonight but there’s a lot to consider tonight. The Capitals have lost five of their last seven and they’re going to be missing a few key regulars. Dmitry Orlov was suspended for kneeing Nikolaj Ehlers, John Carlson is in COVID-19 protocol and T.J. Oshie is questionable with an upper-body injury.
Those absences are affecting the sportsbooks’ odds (+158) and the model is seeing value in that line. However, this is not the Capitals team that the model thinks it is.
Lines to Watch
The model isn’t particularly close on too many games tonight but here are a few lines to monitor throughout the day and the point at which the model would recommend a bet.
Team ➡ Current Line ➡ Bet Line
BUF ➡ +177 ➡ +189
SJS ➡ +100 ➡ +107
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick
Vegas Golden Knights (-1.5) vs. Montreal Canadiens (-160)
The payout isn’t great here for a Puck Line bet, but I think Vegas will have no problem handling the Canadiens tonight. While the Golden Knights aren’t having a great month, they’ve still been one of the best teams in the NHL, especially at even strength. I think that they’ll just be too much for Montreal to handle. The Habs are also in the middle of a long road trip.
I’m also taking the Penguins on the Puck Line tonight against the Senators, but only if we get a Tristan Jarry start.
Joe Pavelski Over 0.5 assists (+115)
I’m still trying to get out of this tough cold streak, but I do really like Pavelski tonight. He has six assists in his last five games and has picked up at least one in seven of his last 10. I like those numbers and I like the matchup for the Stars, as they’ll play a Sabres team that an average of three goals-against per game over their last five.