Daily NHL betting guide: January 4
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Picks
Recommended Bets
Columbus Blue Jackets (vs. TBL)
The Blue Jackets are massive underdogs (+184) on Tuesday night, but the model sees this as a slightly closer matchup. While it still favors the Lightning to win (60.3%), it sees enough value to take a chance on the Blue Jackets.
Columbus has struggled on the road, but has played very well on home ice, winning five of its last seven (5-1-1) games, while averaging 3.86 goals for per game. Patrik Laine has played well in his return to the lineup, Alexandre Texier is on an absolute heater right now and Oliver Bjorkstrand returns to the lineup on Tuesday. The one issue is Zach Werenski is questionable due to some COVID-19 issues, so monitor his status during the morning skate. The same goes for Elvis Merzlikins, who is battling a lower-body issue.
1 Unit Bet: CBJ +184 (if Merzlikins starts)
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
Vegas Golden Knights (vs. NSH)
The only reason that the Golden Knights are only -126 is that they are missing Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone and Robin Lehner. The model doesn’t see that, so it’s probably worth avoiding tonight.
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick
Tampa Bay -1.5 vs Columbus (+110)
The Lightning appear to be through the worst of their COVID-19 problems and while they are coming off three straight losses, I like them to bounce back in a big way tonight.
The Blue Jackets are going to be without Elvis Merzlikins, Zach Werenski and Alexandre Texier for this game as well. I think this is a great spot to make some money off a Tampa Bay team that is close to being fully healthy.
I’m also going to be betting on the Jets -1.5 vs Arizona tonight, a pick which I explained on The Daily Faceoff Show.
Prop Pick
Nazem Kadri over 0.5 assists at Chicago (+100)
Kadri has picked up an assist in seven of his last 10 games and has a total of seven apples in his last four games. His production has not slowed down at all and tonight and the Avalanche are playing a Blackhawks team that has allowed a total of 11 goals in their first two games since returning from the league’s pause. I think the Avalanche will have no issues scoring tonight and I like the chances of Kadri being involved.